06:49
Russia’s combat power declined to below 90% of pre-invasion levels: US official
In case you missed this briefing from senior US defense officials, here is a quick recap.
Russia’s combat power in Ukraine has declined below 90% of its pre-invasion levels for the first time since its attack began, a senior US defence official said on Tuesday, suggesting heavy losses of weaponry and growing casualties.
The United States has estimated Russia assembled more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine before the 24 February invasion, along with enough aircraft, artillery, tanks and other firepower for its full-scale attack.
The US defence official, on condition of anonymity and according to a transcript published by the US department of defense, told reporters:
We assess Russian combat power at just below 90 percent.
They’re expending an awful lot, but they also built up an awful lot since the early fall, and they just have a lot available to them.
For the first time they may be just a little bit below 90 percent.”
The official did not provide evidence for the claims.
Military personnel are seen as civilians being evacuated along humanitarian corridors from the Ukrainian city of Mariupol Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
The defense official also gave a critical review of Russia’s ability to take over Ukraine, describing morale issues, command-and-control problems, a reliance on conscripts and a stalled advance to Kyiv.
The official said:
We still hold them about 30 kilometres to the east of Kyiv, which is where they were last week.
The official also described morale issues inside Russian ranks
Anecdotally, we still assess that the Russians are experiencing morale issues at various levels and at various places … They did not expect this level of resistance.
Describing a reliance on conscript soldiers, the official added:
Some of them were not told what they were actually going to be doing inside Ukraine. We know they relied on conscripts, and they still do. I mean, still it has been largely a conscript army. And so these are very young men who haven’t — don’t have a long experience with soldiering and — and we believe that all those factors are combining to affect their morale.”

A soldier on a beach littered with barbed wire and Czech hedgehogs in Odesa Photograph: Vincenzo Circosta/ZUMA Press Wire Service/REX/Shutterstock
Additionally, the official said Russian forces continue to be plagued by logistical problems.
We believe that they are having command-and-control problems just in terms of communications. I mean, they just weren’t fully-prepared for operations of this intensity for this long on so many different multiple lines of attack.”
Ultimately, the official said Russia has not achieved its objectives, which is population centres so that they could occupy and take over Ukraine.
06:41
The war in Ukraine has killed 121 children so far, the office of the prosecutor general said on Wednesday in a message on Telegram, adding that the number of wounded children stood at 167.
The latest United Nations report on civilian casualties as of 10pm 21 March recorded 2,510 civilian casualties, including 953 killed and 1,557 injured. Of the 953 who have been killed, the agency said this comprised of 192 men, 142 women, 12 girls, and 26 boys, as well as 40 children and 541 adults whose sex is yet unknown.
Верховна Рада України
(@verkhovna_rada)#RussiaTerroristCountry #StopRussia pic.twitter.com/MxVKRFnGQq
Updated
06:29
The United Nations will face three resolutions today on the worsening humanitarian situation in Ukraine after Russia decided to call for a vote on its Security Council resolution that makes no mention of its attack on Ukraine.
The General Assembly is scheduled to start considering two rival resolutions Wednesday morning — one supported by Ukraine and western nations that makes clear Russia is responsible for the escalating humanitarian crisis and the other sponsored by South Africa that doesn’t mention Russia, the Associated Press reports.
The Security Council will vote on the third resolution, which is sponsored by Russia and widely criticised for not referring to its invasion of Ukraine. Russia had cancelled a council vote on the measure last Friday as diplomats predicted it would be overwhelmingly defeated.
Russia’s deputy UN ambassador, Dmitry Polyansky, told reporters on Tuesday that Russia had now asked for a vote on Wednesday. It was scheduled to be held after the Security Council’s scheduled meeting Wednesday morning on its cooperation with the Arab League.
Polyansky said if Western nations don’t support the Russian resolution it will be “a reflection of their hypocrisy” and refusal to support a purely humanitarian measure “without any politicisation,” just like other humanitarian resolutions adopted by the 15-member council.
06:15
Ukrainian civilians continue to flee their homeland.
According to UNHCR figures, more than 3,557,245 Ukrainians have fled since Russia invaded on 24 February.

A woman holds her young son at a refugee camp in Chisinau, Moldova Photograph: Dumitru Doru/EPA

A man waves goodbye his to daughter on a Poland-bound train in Lviv, western Ukraine Photograph: Bernat Armangué/AP

A family from the town of Zaporizhzhia walk together after fleeing from their home Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Civilians evacuate along humanitarian corridors from the Ukrainian city of Mariupol Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
06:02
Navalny conviction reflects Russia’s ‘intensified crackdown on dissent’, Human Rights Watch says
The latest conviction of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny on Tuesday reflects the Russian government’s intensified crackdown on dissent and free expression, Human Rights Watch has said.
Hugh Williamson, Europe and central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement:
This verdict is apparently intended not only to silence Navalny but to serve as a warning to Russian civil society and anyone who dares to stand up to the Kremlin’s policies.”
Navalny is already serving a two-and-a-half-year sentence and was found guilty of embezzling money from his own Anti-Corruption Foundation and sentenced to a further nine years in prison.
The cases against Navalny are part of the Kremlin’s grim landscape of repression against Russia’s civil society and peaceful dissent, which has drastically intensified since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin seems determined to isolate Russian society from the outside world to cut Russians off from uncomfortable facts, including about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So it’s hardly surprising that Russian authorities are doubling down on smearing and silencing Navalny and others who can tell people not to believe the Kremlin’s lies and that the world is watching.”
05:55
Ukraine’s armed forces has released its operational report as of 6am this morning, claiming its military continues to defend the southern port city of Mariupol as well as Chernihiv to deter Russia’s advance towards Kyiv.
Notably, officials said rebels operating in Belarus against Russia’s war on Ukraine partially removed a railway connection between Belarus and Ukraine.
“On the territory of Belarus, representatives of the opposition forces and caring citizens, who condemn the contribution of the current illegal power of the Russian Federation in the war with Ukraine, partially removed the railway connection between the Republic of Belarus and Ukraine. The information is being specified,” the report, published by Ukraine’s the ministry of defence, read.

A member of Kyiv territorial defence carrying a gun participates in training exercises Photograph: Mykhaylo Palinchak/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock
The Ukrainian army also claimed that Russia has resorted to recruiting former soldiers to join its war effort in order to make up for heavy losses.
Russian military officials have been actively recruiting former servicemen particularly “those who already have combat experience”, the Ukrainian military said.
Officials added that 17 Russian air targets were destroyed over the past 24 hours, including 6 aircraft, 5 UAVS, 1 helicopter and 5 winged missiles.
Updated
05:44
Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to attend a G20 summit being hosted by Indonesia later this year, Russia’s ambassador in Jakarta said on Wednesday, following calls by some members for the country to be barred from the group.
“Not only G20, many organisations are trying to expel Russia….the reaction of the west is absolutely disproportional,” ambassador Lyudmila Vorobieva told a news conference on Wednesday.
The United States and its western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the Group of Twenty (G20) grouping of major economies following its invasion of Ukraine, sources involved in the discussions told the news agency earlier on Tuesday.
Updated
05:40
Pentagon condemns Kremlin refusal to rule out use of nuclear weapons
The Pentagon has condemned Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s refusal to rule out the use of nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the threat of using nuclear weapons and in an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Peskov refused to rule out their use.
Peskov told the broadcaster that such arms could be used if Russia faced an “existential threat”. Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads.
Christiane Amanpour
(@amanpour)President Putin has raised the threat of using nuclear weapons – and his spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to rule out their use, in an interview with me tonight. pic.twitter.com/uxQqncLGYN
US department of defense spokesman John Kirby said Moscow’s nuclear remarks were “dangerous”.
Speaking to reporters, he said:
It’s not the way a responsible nuclear power should act.”
However, Kirby added that Pentagon officials “haven’t seen anything that would lead us to conclude that we need to change our strategic deterrent posture”.
“We monitor this as best we can every day,” he added.
Former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also criticised Peskov’s comments.
“I don’t see how you can see it any other way but as dangerous when Russia is looking for a possible excuse for the use of low-yield nuclear weapons,” Panetta told CNN.
“And basing it frankly on a very false premise that somehow Russia is being threatened. I think that presents a real concern that Russia at least is considering that possibility.”
05:31
Scenes of normality contrast with the catastrophic attacks Russia continues to launch on Ukraine.

A couple kisses on a bench in downtown Lviv, western Ukraine Photograph: Bernat Armangué/AP

Musicians perform while people make their way through a street as the city continues to prepare for the possibility of a Russian military attack in Lviv Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

A family walks next to anti-tank barricades in Odesa, southern Ukraine Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP
05:29
The United States and its western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the Group of Twenty (G20) grouping of major economies following its invasion of Ukraine, sources involved in the discussions told Reuters on Tuesday.
The likelihood that any bid to exclude Russia outright would be vetoed by others in the club – which includes China, India, Saudi Arabia and others – raised the prospect of some countries instead skipping G20 meetings this year, the sources said.
The G20 along with the smaller Group of Seven – comprising just the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan and Britain – is a key international platform for coordinating everything from climate change action to cross-border debt.
According to Reuters, a senior G7 source said:
There have been discussions about whether it’s appropriate for Russia to be part of the G20.
If Russia remains a member, it will become a less useful organisation.”
Asked whether US President Joe Biden would move to push Russia out of the G20 when he meets with allies in Brussels this week, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House Tuesday: “We believe that it cannot be business as usual for Russia in international institutions and in the international community.”
However, the United States plans to consult with its allies before any other pronouncements are made, he said.
A European Union source separately confirmed the discussions about Russia’s status at forthcoming meetings of the G20, whose rotating chair is currently held by Indonesia.
“It has been made very clear to Indonesia that Russia’s presence at forthcoming ministerial meetings would be highly problematic for European countries,” said the source, adding there was however no clear process for excluding a country.
05:23
Biden heads to Europe to announce new sanctions on Russia’s Duma
US President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions against Russia and new measures to tighten existing ones when he visits Brussels this week.
Biden will meet with leaders of Nato, the EU and G7 on Thursday, where he is expected to announce new sanctions on more than 300 members of Russia’s lower house of parliament as soon as Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cited unnamed officials and internal documents.
“No final decisions have been made about who we will sanction and how many we will sanction,” said a White House spokesperson.
“We will have additional sanctions measures to announce that will be rolled out in conjunction with our allies on Thursday when the President has the opportunity to speak with them.”
Biden’s Europe trip is also set to include an announcement on joint action to enhance energy security on the continent, which is highly reliant on Russian gas, and a visit to Poland to show solidarity with Ukraine’s neighbour.
The US president will also announce more US aid to help tackle the growing refugee crisis in Poland and other eastern European countries, the White House said.
In a statement, the White House said Biden will also outline “further American contributions to a coordinated humanitarian response to ease the suffering of civilians inside Ukraine and to respond to the growing flow of refugees”.
05:18
Mariupol under ‘constant bombing’, Russia seizes humanitarian convoy, Zelenskiy says
In Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s nightly national address, the Ukrainian president provided an update on the situation unfolding in Mariupol, saying there are still 100,000 people in the city living in “inhumane” conditions while accusing Russian forces of seizing a humanitarian convoy near Mangush, just 20km south-west of Mariupol.
As of today, there are about 100,000 people in the city. In inhumane conditions. In a total blockade. Without food, water, medication. Under constant shelling, under constant bombing.”
The president added that officials are continuing to attempt to organise humanitarian corridors for Mariupol residents but efforts have been sabotaged by continued shelling.
Sadly, almost all of our efforts are sabotaged by Russian occupants, by [their] shelling or deliberate terror.
Today, one of the humanitarian convoys was seized by occupants on an arranged route near Mangush.
Employees of the State Emergency Service and bus drivers have been taken captive. We are doing everything to set our people free and unblocked the movement of humanitarian cargo.”

A family prepares to evacuate by train to Lviv, Ukraine Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Despite the difficulties, Zelenskiy said 7,026 people were able to be saved from Mariupol with efforts continuing to arrange humanitarian corridors in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Luhansk regions.
Zelenskiy wrapped up his nightly address by promising he was continuing to work “to push Russia towards peace”.
We are continuing to work on various levels to push Russia towards peace, towards the end of this brutal war. Ukrainian representatives are continuing negotiations that basically take place daily. It is very hard, sometimes, scandalous. But step by step we are moving forward.”
Zelenskiy also noted the three summits scheduled for this week: G7, Nato and the EU.
New packages of sanctions, new support. We’ll keep working and will keep fighting as much as we can. Until the end. Courageously and openly. On all of those platforms. With full energy. With all our strength. And we will not get tired. We will have rest when we win. And it will definitely happen.”

This Maxar satellite image taken and released on March 22 shows buildings on fire in Mariupol, Ukraine Photograph: Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images
Updated
05:09
Summary
Hello it’s Samantha Lock with you and we unpack all the latest developments in Ukraine.
It is the morning of day 28 of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Casualties are in the thousands and millions have fled the country seeking refuge abroad.
Here is a comprehensive rundown on where the crisis currently stands:
- Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russian forces of seizing a humanitarian convoy near Mangush west of Mariupol. “Employees of the state emergency service and bus drivers have been taken captive,” he said, adding that 100,000 people remained in the city living “in inhumane conditions. In a total blockade. Without food, water, medication. Under constant shelling, under constant bombing”.
- Russian forces are now inside Mariupol, a senior US defence official said. Two “super-powerful bombs” rocked the city on Tuesday even as rescue efforts were ongoing, local authorities said.
- Russia’s combat power in Ukraine has declined below 90% of its pre-invasion levels for the first time since its attack began, a senior US defence official said on Tuesday, suggesting heavy losses of weaponry and growing casualties and describing morale issues, command-and-control problems, a reliance on conscripts and a stalled advance to Kyiv.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to rule out the use of nuclear weapons in an interview with CNN on Tuesday. Peskov told the broadcaster that such arms could be used if Russia faced an “existential threat”. Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads.
- The Pentagon later condemned Peskov’s refusal to rule out the use of nuclear weapons.
- US President Joe Biden will depart on Wednesday to fly to Brussels where he is expected to announce new sanctions against Russia and new measures to tighten existing ones.
- The deputy head of Kyiv’s police force has accused Russia of using white phosphorous munitions in the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk. Oleksiy Biloshytskiy shared online footage, which could not be independently verified, of material burning fiercely underneath a pile of aggregate. “Another use of phosphorus ammunitions in Kramatorsk,” he said.
- Zelenskiy will speak virtually at the Nato summit in Brussels on Thursday, where US president Joe Biden is also planning to push for new sanctions against Russia. “Three important summits are scheduled this week: G7, Nato and the EU,” he said. “New packages of sanctions, new support.”
- About 300,000 people in the occupied southern city of Kherson are running out of food and medical supplies, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry said. Kherson was the first major Ukrainian city to fall into Russian hands since the invasion began on 24 February.
- Russia plans to unleash a “great terror” on Kherson by kidnapping residents and taking them across the Russian border, an FSB whistleblower has claimed. The Kremlin was no longer willing to “play nicely” with protesters in the Ukrainian city, a letter said.
- Russian forces have only three further days of fuel, food and ammunition left to conduct the war after a breakdown in their supply chains, Ukrainian military commanders have claimed. The statements were described as “plausible” by western officials.
- Russian forces have “kidnapped” 2,389 children from the Russian-controlled territories of Luhansk and Donetsk, the US embassy in Kyiv has said, citing figures by Ukraine’s foreign ministry. The embassy said: “This is not assistance. It is kidnapping.”
- The Ukrainian health minister, Viktor Lyashko, said 10 hospitals had been completely destroyed since Russia invaded. Other hospitals could not be restocked with medicines and supplies because of nearby fighting, the minister added.
- The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, said it is time for Russia to end its “absurd” and “unwinnable” war in Ukraine, as the EU prepared to set up a “trust fund” aimed at helping Kyiv repel the invasion and rebuild afterwards. Speaking to reporters at the UN’s headquarters in New York, Guterres said the war was “going nowhere, fast”.
- The United States and its western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the Group of Twenty (G20) grouping of major economies following its invasion of Ukraine, sources involved in the discussions told Reuters on Tuesday.
As usual, for any tips and feedback please contact me through Twitter or at samantha.lock@theguardian.com
The Guardian keeps you up to the minute on the crisis in Ukraine with a global perspective and from our team around the world and around the clock. Thank you for reading and please do stay tuned.
Updated