The party, in the run-up to the 2022 assembly polls, has to work to not only ease the anti-incumbency, caused mainly due to Covid-19 related mis-management, but also reach out to smaller communities, specifically the OBCs such as Thakores, Prajapatis, the Bakshipanch community.
It will have to ensure the Patidar votes are not split as the Congress and AAP have been projecting Patidar activist Hardik Patel and Surat-based businessman and philanthropist Mahesh Savani respectively as their leaders.
While the BJP has been proactive with OBC politics in other states, in Gujarat, it has treaded that line carefully so as not to upset the influential Patidar community –– an approach similar to the one it adopted in Karnataka where it chose to go with SR Bommai, a Lingayat, as its CM.
The reason is because the OBCs have not presented any threat as it did in 2017 with the Thakores rallying behind Alpesh Thakore demanding better governance and more representation from the BJP government. Besides, the Congress has not nurtured any effective mass leader from the community.
According to political analyst Uday Thakore, the Bakshipanch community, apart from the Thakores and Kolis form a substantial voter base. The Patidars are believed to be significant in 52 assembly constituencies, while the Thakores and Kolis are said to be decisive voters in 68 constituencies. Areas dominated by ST voters, constitute 15% of the population, while the Muslims form around 10%.
In 2017, while the Patidars and the farming community in Saurashtra voted for the Congress, the BJP covered up for its losses with more votes in urban pockets. In some urban areas, it managed to win 20 more seats than the Congress. The state has around 8% Dalits, 5% Rajputs, and 2% Brahmins, Jains and Vaisyas.
Manishi Jani, another political commentator, said the Patidar support for the BJP was important because “most RSS top leaders hail from the Patidar community whose work has led to the growth of the RSS-BJP here. Patidars also form a significant portion of the middle-class and professionals — both categories important for the BJP”.
He said the appointment of someone as low-profile as Bhupendra Patel was a strategic one to get the Patidar votes and send across a message to other communities that only PM Narendra Modi should matter to people of the state.
Dineshchandra Anavadiya, an MP from Gujarat who has also headed the Bakshipanch morcha for the party, said the BJP is not worried about the OBCs, because it was “under Narendra Modi that the Bakshipanch community got social and political recognition”. “It was under Narendrabhai that this community even started getting tickets to fight elections at the local level.. our party started dedicated schemes for them and even groomed their leaders which the Congress never did. With the OBC bill and OBC commission, every OBC is with the party now.”
According to party observers, the biggest challenge for the CM would be to inspire confidence among the various castes. “The challenge for any CM in Gujarat is to live up to the expectations that people have of Narendra Modi’s tenure here as CM. It is a lot about delivery. If governance issues are not up to the mark, caste identity issues will crop up like it did in 2017 which is what the BJP is trying to preempt and avoid,” political analyst Shirish Kashikar told ET.
The importance of Patidars for the BJP became clear when, during the Jan Ashirwad yatra last month, health minister Mansukh Mandaviya recalled the efforts made by the BJP to honour the community, including building the Statue of Unity and conferring Padma Bhushan on former CM Keshubhai Patel posthumously.
Although the state has not witnessed any unrest among the Patidars as was witnessed in 2015-16, the demand for more Patidar representation has increased. A meeting of prominent social leaders of the Leuva and Kadva Patidar sub-castes was held at Khodaldham temple in Kagvad in Saurashtra in June, where they vowed to bring in a Patidar CM. Some leaders were seen complaining about the lack of representation for them in the BJP.