By February next year, at least half of India’s 1.3 billion population is likely to have been infected by the novel coronavirus. This may help slow the spread of the disease, a government committee tasked with providing projections told news agency Reuters on Monday.
India’s current coronavirus tally stands at over 75 lakh cases and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.
However, coronavirus infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.
What the projections say
“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.
The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the central government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.
But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.
New model of projections
Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.
“We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal told Reuters.
The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.
Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.
(With inputs from Reuters)
READ MORE | No visitors inside Durga Puja pandals across West Bengal, orders Calcutta HC
READ MORE | India-American teen wins $25,000 prize for discovery that may lead to Covid-19 cure
WATCH | Hyderabad: 19 people who were rescued from flood-hit areas test positive for coronavirus