In Meerut, the BJP has given a chance to its young leader Kamal Dutt Sharma who is facing sitting MLA Rafiq Ansari of SP. Meerut district, which has seven assembly constituencies — Meerut, Meerut Cantonment, Meerut South, Siwalkhas, Sardhana, Hastinapur and Kithor — went to polls on February 10 in the first phase of polling. Overall, the voter turnout in the first phase of UP elections was 60.1%.
Western UP is seeing new political combinations pitted against old loyalties. Akhilesh-led SP has allied with RLD, led by Jayant Chaudhary, to get the support of Jats who are angry with the BJP over the farm laws which have now been repealed. Meanwhile, BJP is pulling out all the stops with door-to-door campaigning, accusing SP of ‘goondaraj’ during its regime, reaching out to Jats and attempting to create a rift in the alliance.
Voters are split. “BJP candidate Sharma will win in Meerut,” says PL Ahuja, who runs a crockery shop near Ghanta Ghar. “Sharma has a clean image. Also, goondagardi is under control now and the poor get free ration twice a month. Besides, All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP )are fielding Muslim candidates, which will split Muslim votes.”
Mohammed Ansari, who had to shut his small shop selling sports goods during the lockdown and now works as a daily wager, says the cycle, the SP’s election symbol, will ride in this city of sports goods industries. “I am jobless now — is that not enough?” he asks.
ET travelled to parts of western UP before the polls to understand the political lie of the land. The Jats, caught between their identity as Hindus and farmers, are clearly divided between old ties and new equations. The Jat-Muslim unity that broke during the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots is building again, although in patches.
So which way is the wind blowing in Muzaffarnagar? “The mood among Jats is 60:40 in favour of SP-RLD over the BJP in the hinterland while it is 50:50 in urban areas,” says Vir Chand Tyagi of Nara village in Charthawal constituency in Muzaffarnagar. “There is still some anger against BJP but our votes will go to the party. Our girls are free to move freely under the present rule. And they talk about Hindus. Besides we have got the sugarcane dues on time,” says Tyagi, adding that the victory margin might shrink due to anti-incumbency but BJP will eventually form the government in UP.
The BJP had won all six seats in Muzaffarnagar — Budhana, Khatauli, Purkaji, Muzaffarnagar city, Meerapur and Charthawal — in 2017. This time, BJP, which was at the receiving end of the farmers’ wrath, may have regained their confidence to some extent by repealing the farm laws, but it looks difficult for the party to repeat 2017 when it won 53 of 58 seats in the first phase of polling and 81 of 109 seats across west UP. “It is incorrect to say that there is an anti-BJP sentiment among all Jats . BJP has recovered the ground it lost after the farm laws were repealed,” says Rajendra Kumar Pandey, professor, political science department, Chaudhary Charan Singh University, Meerut.
Meanwhile, the opposition parties are leaving no stone unturned to woo Jats and bring together the two key constituents of the region — Jats and Muslims . “I am not sure whether Jats and Muslims can bury their differences but this time they have a common enemy. They have started to realise that they must be united if they want to defeat BJP,” says Sanjay Kumar, co-director, CSDS.
Cracks are visible in a few seats. In the Siwalkhas seat in Meerut, the alliance is fielding former SP MLA Ghulam Mohammad on an RLD symbol which has angered the Jats. “Why would Jats vote for a Muslim when we have the option of BJP?” asks an RLD leader from the region. Some Jats are peeved with Jayant Chaudhary for allowing SP candidates to fight on the RLD symbol of the hand pump in a dozen seats. “If they lose, it will be blamed on RLD; if they win, the credit will go to SP,” says an RLD candidate, who claims he had to make way for an SP candidate in west UP.
“This (giving RLD symbol to a SP politician) is a blunder by the RLD. If the candidate loses, RLD’s graph will come down. In such seats, Jats will easily go to BJP,” says professor Pandey.
RLD, however, brushes aside any suggestion of rift or anger within the party. “BJP is trying its best to create a rift between SP and RLD but it will not succeed. Entire west UP is up in arms against the BJP and will not forgive them for causing the deaths of 700 farmers,” Jayant Chaudhary told ET recently.
CRACKS IN THE BASE?
As for BJP, its traditional vote base of Lodhs, Brahmins, Gujjars and non-Jatav Dalits seem to be shifting in parts. “Covid is not a concern when it comes to campaigning and conducting elections, but when it comes to creating jobs, BJP gives Covid as an excuse. I voted for BJP last time but this time I will go for the cycle. The only job I have right now is protecting my crop from ‘Yogi-Modi’ (a term locals have coined for stray cattle),” says Hemant Singh, a Lodh Rajput from Shikarpur, Bulandshahr.
Rajnish Kumar of Khurja, a Kumhar who owns a pottery shop, says he will vote for BJP despite the perceived edge of the cycle. In 2019, the Yogi government had included 19 OBCs, including Kumhars, in the SC category.
While many voters still swear by BJP, old loyalty is breaking. BJP had won all seven seats in Bulandshahr in 2017, but sensing anti-incumbency, it has fielded new candidates in four — Khurja, Dibai, Bulandshahr and Sikandrabad.
Jatavs, who have been the core, unshakeable vote base of BSP, seem to be having second thoughts. “Voting for BSP would be a waste this time as Mayawati seems to be under some pressure. We are with behenji emotionally, but we will vote for bhaiyya (Akhilesh) to stop BJP,” says Ashok Kumar Jatav, a farmer from Mansukh Garhi, a village of Jatavs, in the Sikandrabad constituency of Bulandshahr. Other villagers with him echo the sentiment.
Many locals ET spoke to say winning back Sikandrabad, Syana and Khurja might be difficult for BJP.
What could help BJP is the fact that Mayawati has given tickets to Muslims in some seats, like Charthawal in Muzaffarnagar, which might end up splitting Muslim votes between SP, BSP and AIMIM. “The BJP candidate can win easily as Muslim votes might get divided between SP, BSP and AIMIM,” says Mohammad Qurban, a contractor at Saidpur Kalan village of Charthawal. Here, the fight is between Pankaj Malik of SP, Salman Shahid of BSP, Tahir Ansari of AIMIM and Sapna Kashyap of BJP.
Similarly, in Bulandshahr city, BSP’s Mobin Kallu Qureshi is facing Haji Yunus of SP-RLD. In Koil seat of Aligarh, BSP has picked Mohammad Bilal against SP’s Shaz Ishaq. In the first and second phases, the BSP has fielded 16 and 23 Muslim candidates, respectively.
“The BSP has fielded many Muslim candidates in the West. This could dent our chances due to division of votes,” says an SP leader on condition of anonymity. In 2017, BSP came second in most of the 58 seats that went to the polls in the first phase. In the 58 seats, AIMIM has fielded 12 candidates, including in Meerut, Charthawal and Loni. This could again cut into SP-RLD votes. Walking a tightrope, the SP-RLD alliance has tried to avoid polarisation of votes lest the fight become 80 vs 20. SP, for instance, has not fielded a Muslim candidate in Muzaffarnagar.
“What is evident is that there is no BJP wave. The fight is neck-and-neck between BJP and the SP-RLD alliance,” says Pawan Kumar, a Jat farmer from Rajpur village, Anupshahr.
ADVANTAGE BJP
- Cracks in SP-RLD pact in a few seats
- BSP and AIMIM could cut votes
- Rakesh Tikait’s U-turn on support to SP
- Muslim vs Muslim candidates in many seats
ADVANTAGE SP-RLD
- Farmers’ angst
- Jats backing Jayant Chaudhary
- Jat-Muslim consolidation in many seats
BJP’S ELECTION PITCH
- Yogi’s development plank
- Alleged “palayan” or mass exodus of Hindus
- Reported lawlessness under SP rule
- Attempts to create rift in SP-RLD
SP-RLD’S ELECTION PITCH
- Farmers’ issues
- Claims to have the backing of “sarva samaj”
- Highlight “empty promises” of BJP
KEY ISSUES IN WEST UP
- Farmers’ distress
- Stray cattle
- Unemployment
- Inflation