Momentum Pick: ICICI Bank to surpass 52-week high; 27% upside seen over long term

India’s second largest private lender ICICI Bank has given more than 21% returns over a 12 month period and has outperformed not just BSE Sensex and Nifty50 but also banking indices Nifty Bank (18.4%) and BSE Bankex (16.5%). With robust Q4 earnings coupled with technical triggers, the stock is ready for the next leg of rally.

The stock ended at Rs 913.20 on the NSE on Tuesday and was up by Rs 8.45 or 0.93% from the Monday closing price.

Technical View by Rajesh Palviya, VP, Technical and Derivatives Research at Axis Securities:

“ICICI BANK is in a strong uptrend across all the time frames forming a series of higher tops and bottoms across all the time frames. Recently, the stock has recaptured its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMA and rebounded sharply, indicating a strong comeback of bulls,” Rajesh Palviya, Vice President, Technical and Derivatives Research at Axis Securities said.

“On the weekly time frame, the stock is sustaining above its two years up-sloping channel, which reconfirms the bullish trend. Rising volumes in the last couple of months signify the strengthening trend. The daily, weekly, and monthly strength indicator RSI is in a bullish mode, which also indicates rising strength on short to medium-term charts,” Palviya said.

From current levels, Rs 860-800 are the crucial support zones, whereas the upside in the stock is likely to surpass its recent high of Rs 958 in the coming months,” the Axis Securities expert said.

Momentum indicators RSI and MFI are in a medium range of 64.1 and 64.4 respectively according to Trendlyne. A number below 30 indicates that the stock is trading in an oversold territory while a number above 70 means that it is trading in an overbought zone.The stock has been relatively volatile and traded with a 1-year beta of 1.03.

Fundamental View

Sharekhan: Buy | Target Rs 1,120 | Upside: 27%

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ on ICICI Bank with an unchanged price target of Rs 1,120. The stock has been recommended at a price of Rs 884. The stock currently trades at 2.3X/1.9X its FY2024E/FY2025E core book value estimates. It said that strong outperformance and further re-rating from here on is likely to be a very gradual one, based on sustainable performance and quality earnings.

ICICI Bank reported PAT of Rs 9,121.87 crore, which was up 30% year-on year (YoY) versus Rs 7018.71 crore in Q4FY23. For the year ended March 31, 2023, PAT grew by 36.7% YoY to Rs 31,896 crore. At 36,108.88 crore, the total standalone income for the reporting quarter was up by nearly 32% YoY. It was Rs 27,412.32 crore in Q4FY22.

ET CONTRIBUTORS

Key Risks
Economic slowdown due to which slower loan growth and higher-than-anticipated credit cost could affect earnings; slower growth in retail liability franchise; and lower-than-expected margins.

image5ET CONTRIBUTORS

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)



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