Updates on incremental Covid-related provisions, collection efficiency, BB and below-rated book and restructuring would be keenly followed, analysts said.
The bank’s numbers would be aided by a low base, as the year-ago’s profit had fallen 27.90 per cent to Rs 654.96 crore due to one-time additional charge on account of re-measurement of accumulated deferred tax. All these factors are expected to boost the bank’s quarterly performance. Besides, the private lender sold 64.42 lakh shares of subsidiary ICICI Securities in the open market during the quarter gone by. It also raised Rs 15,000 crore during the quarter via qualified institutional placement.
HDFC Securities expects the private lender to report a 356.4 per cent jump in profit at Rs 2,990 crore on a 1.5 per cent drop in NII at Rs 9,140 crore. Pre-provision operating profit is seen rising 8.9 per cent to Rs 7,490 crore.
“Core earnings may grow at 13 per cent YoY including a one-off interest on tax refund. Non-interest income may dip sequentially, led by lower treasury gains. Despite ICICI Bank’s high coverage ratios, we have conservatively factored in higher provisions of 38.6 per cent YoY,” the brokerage said
Edelweiss sees ICICI’s core profit rising 439 per cent to Rs 3,527 crore. It sees NII growth falling 5.7 per cent YoY to Rs 11,557 crore.
“Loan offtake will likely be soft. Deposits may show strong traction. The key monitorable will be the downgrades to BBB and below the list. The credit cost could be higher if the bank choses to further build up provisioning,” it said.
Nirmal Bang’s profit estimate stood at Rs 3,676 crore, up 461 per cent. This brokerage sees 0.7 per cent drop in NII at Rs 9,213 crore. Pre-provision operating profit is seen rising 9.3 per cent at Rs 7,514 crore. NIM is seen falling 13 basis points to 3.5 per cent, the brokerage said.
The loan growth for the bank is seen rising 5.5 per cent YoY to Rs 6,46,995 crore in September quarter, while deposits are seen growing 19.2 per cent at Rs 8,29,679 crore.