Revenue from operations during the January-March 2024 period is likely to decline up to 6% year-on-year, while profit growth is seen up to 23% year-on-year.
Novelis is expected to report improved earnings due to the destocking phase in beverage cans and third quarter being a seasonally weak quarter.
“Novelis’ EBITDA/ton guidance of $525/ton in 4QFY24 seems achievable,” said Motilal Oswal, while adding that the timeline for commissioning multiple capex is crucial.
Investors also await management guidance on domestic aluminum demand along with the hedging position.How analysts expect Hindalco’s Q4 earnings:NuvamaHindalco aluminium incl Utkal EBITDA to inch up by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, amid flat volume, CoP aided marginally by higher aluminium prices. The fall in E-auction coal price in Q4FY24 will get reflected in Q1FY25 due to lag effect.
We factor aluminium EBITDA/t of $885, up 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and copper EBITDA at $660/t, down 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA/t to improve to $525, up by 5% quarter-on-quarter.
Kotak Equities
We estimate India EBITDA (standalone + Utkal) at Rs 2800 crore with aluminum EBITDA (including Utkal) of Rs 2150 crore led primarily by lower costs and copper EBITDA of Rs 650 crore led by resilient TcRcs and a high sequential base.
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