Cop26 live: world ‘heading for 1.9C of heating’, climate model projects






















There’s a lively Extinction Rebellion gathering at the top of Buchanan Street, with booming drummers and this tree who has come all the way from South Wales.

“Stumpy” told the Guardian he was pleased with the reforestation deal announced on Monday, but cautioned “we’ve had so many deals and people have reneged on them and if we’re not keeping the likes of Bolsonaro accountable then there’s little point.”

Extinction Rebellion protesters in Glasgow during Cop26

Extinction Rebellion protesters in Glasgow during Cop26. Photograph: Libby Brooks/The Guardian




Barclays branches and offices across Glasgow are now plastered with “congratulations” after a new report claimed the bank has financed more fossil fuel projects than any of the UK’s largest banks in the months leading up to the climate summit.

The report by climate finance campaigners at Market Forces, covered by the Guardian this week, found that Barclays financed $5.6bn (£4.1bn) for new fossil fuel projects from January 2021 to the eve of Cop26 despite growing international warnings that new fossil developments would destroy any chance of avoiding a catastrophic climate breakdown.

Market Forces said the stickers are vinyl, so unlike Barclays’ fossil fuel financing they won’t cause any damage.

Market Forces
(@market_forces)

Morning @Barclays – we wanted to say congratulations for funding the most fossil fuels between January and #COP26, so we redecorated your Glasgow Southside branch 😍 pic.twitter.com/jQ1MONXZLs


November 3, 2021







Updated







Climate model puts world on track for 1.9C of heating

India’s pledge to reach net zero by 2070 was described as lacklustre and too late by some observers but number crunching by the University of Melbourne suggests it could be better than first thought and, taken with other recent pledges on emissions made in Glasgow, could be enough to bring the worlds emissions trajectory on a pathway below 2C for the first time.

It is still far from enough to hold the world within 1.5C, the aim of Cop26, but it makes a useful difference. Researchers have run the numbers through their IPCC AR6 WG1-consistent climate emulator Magicc – which results in a best-estimate projection of a 1.9C peak warming this century.

Here’s an image released by Climate Resource showing the difference:

An update to climate projections by Climate Resource estimates that recent pledges have put the world on track for 1.9C of heating above pre-industrial levels.

An update to climate projections by Climate Resource estimates that recent pledges have put the world on track for 1.9C of heating above pre-industrial levels. Photograph: Climate Resource

Updated




Ninawa Huni Kui, of the Huni Kui people from Acre, Brazil was outside the conference venue protesting against carbon offsetting, which he said was tearing indigenous communities apart.

“They should not be deciding things without us. This Cop won’t help the climate emergency without our participation. Our land is being invaded by miners, farmers and hydroelectric companies. Our voice must be heard.”

Ninawa Huni Kui of the Huni Kui people from Acre, Brazil

Ninawa Huni Kui of the Huni Kui people from Acre, Brazil. Photograph: Jonathan Watts/The Guardian







There’s widespread concern that Rishi Sunak has missed the opportunity to make a real change to the way businesses and financial institutions operate when it comes to the climate and net zero.

Christian Aid’s UK advocacy and policy lead, Jennifer Larbie, said: “It’s welcomed that the chancellor recognises London’s financial sector is critical to any meaningful progress towards a global net zero. But this announcement does little to shift the dial now on the trillions still flowing into fossil fuel projects every day, with the deadliest of impacts borne by developing countries. The UK government must mandate the financial sector to act with urgency to end fossil fuel investments.”

But some were more positive. Kate Levick, associate director for sustainable finance at the E3G thinktank said: “This is a major step forward. To be in line with the science and 1.5C, financial regulators will have a crucial role to play in enforcing these transition plans to ensure they are credible.”

But we won’t know what Sunak’s answer is to these concerns as incredibly, he’s coming to Glasgow but refusing to do a press conference or accept any questions from the media or anyone else. Hardly reassuring.




Sunak has said he wants UK to be a net zero finance hub and to that end wants publicly listed companies to disclose their climate metrics . But he’s not making it mandatory to meet net zero. Why not? At this stage of a global crisis, surely it’s not too much to ask that the biggest and richest companies should be cutting their emissions.

Dr Frederik Dahlmann, associate professor of sustainability at Warwick Business School said: “If the publication of these plans is not mandatory, companies will end up considering primarily public reputation benefits and commercial risk impacts from disclosure, rather than dedicate time and effort to plan their net zero strategies

“Moreover, in many cases, companies’ own carbon footprints are significantly outweighed by those of their supply chains. If these transition plans don’t cover all of so-called scope 3 emissions (and ideally impose similar reporting requirements on non-listed firms), the benefits of the proposal may be insufficient to really bend the emissions curve across the UK economy as a whole.

“Finally, the treasury has to explain what exactly happens with these transition plans once they have been reviewed. They may be useful for opening a wider discussion on decarbonisation within firms, but what are the consequences of failing to meet these self-imposed plans?”

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