This week WorldView comes to you from Pakistan. S. Jaishankar traveled to Islamabad for the SCO and meetings with Pakistan Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.
Dr. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan for one of many firsts:
– First visit by any Indian minister since 2016- when Home Minister Rajnath Singh attended the SAARC meet
– First visit by an Indian Foreign Minister since 2015- when EAM Sushma Swaraj attended the Heart of Asia conference
– Jaishankar’s first visit since December 2015, when EAM Sushma Swaraj and PM Modi visited
What happened at the SCO?
Now the SCO meeting itself was not the highest level, but Heads of Govt level of the 10 SCO countries Russia, China 4 Central Asian States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Iran, Belarus, Pakistan and India.
The Meeting itself saw the signing 8 MoUs, mainly on economic cooperation, as well as passing the budget ahead of the next SCO Summit in China in 2025.
More importantly both India and Pakistan stayed away from the finger pointing of past meetings.
In stark contrast to former FM Bilawal Bhutto Zardari who travelled to Goa for the SCO FM, Mr. Sharif made no oblique reference to Kashmir.
And Mr. Jaishankar spoke about India’s concerns on terrorism, using only SCO charter language that identifies Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism as the evils the region is grappling with.
Jaishankar also made a reference to China’s BRI and India’s objections to it passing through disputed PoK- saying territorial sovereignty must be respected.
On the sidelines Jaishankar met with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar twice- once at dinner and once at a lunch both hosted by PM Sharif, and they are understood to have held “informal conversations. However, the MEA played down the substance of the talks.
“In Islamabad, you would have seen, the only bilateral meeting that our External Affairs Minister had was with Mongolia. Other than that, there were some pleasantries which were exchanged on the sidelines of the meeting, especially during lunch and dinner. That is all,” said Randhir Jaiswal.
Perhaps the clearest signal of some softening came not from the official, but non-official side, as former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the elder brother of PM Shehbaz and Father of Pakistan Punjab CM Maryam Sharif sat down with Indian journalists to talk about his vision for a better state of relations. Here are the highlights:
– He said India and Pakistan must bury the past and loo.k to future cooperation in trade, energy, battling climate change- but declined to respond on past issues of terrorism for India and Kashmir for Pakistan.
– That he appreciated Mr. Modi’s Lahore visit, calling it no small gesture and attacked former PM Imran Khan for his personal criticism of Modi in 2019, comparisons to Hitler and Mussolini
– That he believes trade, rail and road links should be restored, that Pakistan snapped in 2019, high commissioners should be reappointed, and India and Pakistan cricket teams should resume playing in each other’s countries- beginning with the Champions trophy in Pakistan in February.
– Mr. Sharif’s message was the third in a series- In May he said that the Kargil war was a mistake, and the MEA welcomed what it called an “objective view” on Pakistani actions. In June he tweeted congratulations to PM Modi on his third term, and PM Modi responded warmly.
– Mr. Sharif is not in office, and so unclear whether he spoke for the government, but he is the president.
Timing for any new opening:
1. Both elections this year- governments are expected to be stable
2. Conflicts in other parts of the world- no appetite for hostilities between India and Pakistan
3. Pakistan economy troubles
4. Allegations against India from US, Canada, Qatar- and Pakistan- this may be time to address
5. South Asian turmoil- time to revive regional cooperation
Worldview Take:
Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan, while purely for multilateral purposes, signals a possible opening for engagement. To begin with, if India can send a minister to Pakistan for one regional cooperation meet like SCO, then why not another like SAARC. The two countries have too much bad blood for any real optimism for the future, but visits like this one can build the atmosphere for the restoration of ties- in the present trough- even the absence of negativity is a positive step.
Reading recommendations:
Poles Apart: The Military and Democracy in India and Pakistan by Aditya Sondhi
Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan by Ajay Bisaria
India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship by Sharat Sabharwal
The People Next Door: The Curious History of India-Pakistan Relations by T.C.A. Raghavan
Hostility by Abdul Basit
An Indian Woman in Islamabad: 1997-2000 by Ruchi Ghanashyam
In Pursuit of Peace: India-Pakistan Relations Under Six Prime Ministers by Satinder Kumar Lambah
Script and presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Shibu Narayan and Sabika Syed
Published – October 18, 2024 10:59 pm IST