The news could not have been more dramatic- just hours after Palestinian leader and Hamas Political chief Ismail Haniyeh had met with the new Iranian President, and attended President Pezeshkian’s inauguration, the Iranian guard IRGC announced he had been killed– while there is still some confusion over how he died- with Iran blaming Israel for a missile strike, while US and Israeli news reports pointed to a delayed bomb smuggled in months ago- the impact of his assassination will be felt deeply across the region
1. Iran’s response came swiftly- the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei led funeral prayers in Tehran, and the government said revenge for the violation of sovereignty would come soon
2. On the same day Haniyeh was killed Israel announced it had assassinated Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukur in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb, and that it had killed another Hamas leader Mohammad Deif in a Gaza bombing a month ago
3. The attack on Hezbollah followed the killings of 12 children in Majdal Shams on the Golan heights in a rocket attack that Israel blamed Hezbollah for. The attack was on a community of Druze or Arab Israelis. While facing their anger- and posters he was a war criminal
4. A day later in Tehran, newly elected President Pezeshkian took oath- many countries sent envoys to the event- India sent Road and Transport minister Nitin Gadkari- and as you can see – leaders of Hamas Haniyeh as well as Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah were in the same picture
The killing followed other global developments
5. PM Benjamin Netanyahu went to the US to garner support from the govt, also presidential candidates and the Congress. While President Biden and President Trump were effusive, VP Harris was more measured
Remember 40,000 have now been killed in Israeli bombing of Gaza, including about 15,000 children. 115 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas custody
6. Meanwhile China played peacemaker between the two biggest Palestinian groups Fatah- that formed the government the West Bank, and Hamas, that has controlled Gaza for the past 2 decades- they agreed to form a Unity government- this was criticised by Israel and could have been a trigger for the Haniyeh killing
7. And earlier in the month, the International Court of Justice issued an opinion calling Israel’s continued occupation of Gaza and the West Bank- unlawful and a violation of International law
So while Israel has not taken responsibility for Haniyeh’s killing- there are several reasons why most believe it is an Israeli operation
1. Vowed reprisals for October 7- and finishing off Hamas, killing its leaders has been the goal
Haniyeh was killed in Iran, not in Qatar where he lives or in Turkey where he visited frequently- as these would cause a bigger problem for Israel- both Qatar and Turkey host US bases
2. Iran nuclear scientists have been killed in similar attacks in Tehran- and the MO appears to be Israeli
3. PM Netanyahu has consistently opposed a ceasefire despite US pressure to accept one, and killing off Hamas’s chief negotiator will slow down the ceasefire process as well as take the pressure off
4. This assassination will put new Iran President Pezeshkian in the spot- as he has advocated engagement with the west, as well as force US leaders to close ranks with Israel if Irans response sparks a war- Much depends on whether it will be an attack of reprisal- targeted killing by stealth, or escalatory strikes, and will Iran attack alone or along with proxies and allies in the region like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Kata’ib Hezbollah?
India has not so far commented on all that has happened- what is the impact of all these events
1. India was put in an awkward position- first by Iranians who included Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in photo where Indian minister by present, and then by Israel if it targeted the Hamas leader in Tehran while he was there- that awkwardness will continue as India engages both
2. India’s newly signed MoU for Chabahar port could be in trouble- both from conflict and from more sanctions
3. India’s agreement with Israel to send workers to fill in for construction and caregiver jobs will also face challenges
4. India has already issued a travel advisory for Lebanon, Air India has cancelled flights to Israel- likely to be more advisories
5. Connectivity and Trade projects like IMEEC and I2U2 will be grounded
WV Take:
India’s road in west asia or middle east will always be complicated by history, close geography as well as the 8 million indians who live and work in the region being impacted. India’s interests in the region including trade, energy and connectivity are also too intricate to submit to binaries- of good and bad, and choosing one side over the other. Those interests are best served by asserting India’s position in favour of rule of law and justice, respect for the multilateral order rather than might and power- and not forsaking old friendships in favour of new ones.
1. Target Tehran: How Israel Is Using Sabotage, Cyberwarfare, Assassination – and Secret Diplomacy – to Stop a Nuclear Iran and Create a New Middle East by Yonah Jeremy Bob Ilan Evyatar
2. Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations by Ronen Bergman
3. Understanding Hamas And Why That Matters Helena Cobban and Rami Khouri
4. Israel’s Long War with Hezbollah: Military Innovation and Adaptation Under Fire Kindle Edition by Raphael D. Marcus
5. Hamas Contained By Tareq Baconi
6. Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States by Trita Parsi
7. Footnotes in Gaza By Joe Sacco
Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan