Extreme Weather and Climate Updates
Aug. 19, 2021, 11:10 p.m. ET
Aug. 19, 2021, 11:10 p.m. ET
For weeks the wildfires in Northern California — which have so far burned more than 1.3 million acres of land — have mostly skipped across sparsely populated areas and have not required mass evacuations.
But the Caldor fire, which began east of Sacramento over the weekend, has changed that equation. As of Wednesday evening, the uncontained blaze had forced about 23,000 residents of El Dorado County to flee or prepare to leave their homes, the governor’s office reported. Nearly a third of those evacuation notices came on Wednesday in a space of less than six hours.
The overall number of people under evacuation orders or warnings statewide stood at more than 35,000 people as of Wednesday night. That included more than 7,000 residents affected by the Dixie fire, the second-largest blaze in California’s recorded history. The Dixie has so far burned more than 662,000 acres over four counties — Butte, Plumas, Lassen and Tehama — since it emerged in mid-July. It was 35 percent contained on Wednesday, up from 31 percent a day earlier.
More than 3,000 people have also been ordered to evacuate or to prepare to leave in Trinity County, where the Monument fire (10 percent contained) has burned through more than 128,000 acres since late July. And in Lake County, about 700 people were warned to flee a new fire, the Cache (20 percent contained), after it started north of Santa Rosa on Wednesday.
By 5 p.m. on Wednesday, there were 369 people sheltering at 11 wildfire shelters around California, according to the governor’s office. And with more than 10,000 personnel battling a dozen large wildfires in the state, there were signs that further evacuations would stretch its emergency response resources even thinner.
transcript
transcript
Caldor Fire Continues to Burn Northern California
The Caldor Fire is threatening thousands of homes in Northern California as its destructive path spreads. Thousands of people remain under evacuation orders.
Worst thing is this house wasn’t even fought from the fire.
A hospital in El Dorado County, the Marshall Medical Center, said on Wednesday that its staff visit evacuation shelters to offer minor treatment. In an effort to free up space for coronavirus patients and people suffering from smoke inhalation, the hospital has urged fire evacuees who test positive for Covid-19 to avoid coming in for treatment if they do not require emergency care.
That night, Cal Fire, the state’s firefighting agency said that one of the three shelters serving people fleeing the Caldor fire was already full. So was a nearby animal shelter.
At a news briefing on the Caldor fire, Dusty Martin, a Cal Fire official, asked residents to be patient on the question of “repopulation.”
“The fire fighters on the ground are doing everything they can to start bringing some containment to this,” he said of the fire. “But understand: It is going to take some time before we can get you back into your communities.”
The wildfires burning in Northern California, including the rapidly expanding Caldor fire east of Sacramento, are affecting more people than simply those forced to evacuate.
On Thursday, air pollution was projected to remain at unhealthy levels — above 150 on the air quality index — in Sacramento and other cities near the blaze.
Anthony Wexler, director of the Air Quality Research Center at the University of California, Davis, said that air quality in the area had been getting worse every day.
“I can look right at the sun,” he said, “and it doesn’t bother me at all.”
The Caldor, which started last weekend, has already consumed more than 62,000 acres, injuring two people, destroying buildings in the small community of Grizzly Flats and forcing an emergency closure of the Eldorado National Forest. It remained uncontained as of Wednesday evening.
The Dixie fire, the second-largest blaze in the state’s recorded history, has been spreading for more than a month farther north, burning more than 662,000 acres in Butte, Plumas, Lassen and Tehana Counties. It is 35 percent contained.
transcript
transcript
Caldor Fire Continues to Burn Northern California
The Caldor Fire is threatening thousands of homes in Northern California as its destructive path spreads. Thousands of people remain under evacuation orders.
Worst thing is this house wasn’t even fought from the fire.
Cal Fire said on Wednesday that fire activity increased on the western side of the Dixie fire because of clearing smoke and a change in wind direction. On the eastern side, said Geoff Belyea, an incident commander, there was “fire behavior that many of our seasoned and veteran firefighters had yet to see in their careers.”
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it: It was a bare-knuckle fight,” he added.
Two other active blazes in the state, the McFarland fire in Shasta County and the Monument fire in Trinity County, have each burned more than 100,000 acres.
Noting the size of the fires, Mr. Wexler said, “The firefighters can only do so much.”
“My prediction is some of these fires are just going to be here until it rains,” he added, “which will be hopefully October, and not later than that.”
While wildfires occur throughout the West every year, scientists see the influence of climate change in the extreme heat waves that have contributed to the intensity of fires this summer. Prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures are a signal of a shifting climate, they say.
In addition to wildfires along the West Coast, firefighters are battling several smaller blazes in the Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota. The largest of those fires, the Greenwood fire, is about 4,000 acres and “moving very quickly due to strong gusts of wind and dry vegetation,” officials said this week. It has forced some evacuations after being started by lightning on Sunday.
Mike Ives contributed reporting.
A firefighter amid the flames of the Caldor fire near Pollock Pines, Calif. Max Whittaker for The New York Times
The Caldor fire burns in the Eldorado National Forest near Pollock Pines, Calif. Max Whittaker for The New York Times
A forest burned by the Caldor fire. Max Whittaker for The New York Times
Firefighters hike in to dig a containment line. Max Whittaker for The New York Times
The sun is obscured by smoke over burning forest. Max Whittaker for The New York Times
The severe drought that has gripped much of the western half of the United States in spring and summer is likely to continue at least into late fall, government forecasters said Thursday.
The outlook for September through November, prepared by meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, suggests that above-average temperatures are likely across almost all of the West, except for Washington and parts of Idaho, Montana and North Dakota.
Precipitation is expected to be below normal from the Southwest into the Rockies and the Northern Plains.
Together that spells bad news for a part of the country that is already experiencing major effects of drought, including dwindling water supplies, stunted crops, bare grazing lands and exploding wildfires.
“For a lot of the western U.S., we are expecting drought to persist,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a NOAA meteorologist, during a teleconference with reporters.
According to the United States Drought Monitor, currently 47 percent of the land area of contiguous 48 states is in various degrees of drought, nearly all of it in the High Plains or from the Rocky Mountains westward. Drought affects the entirety of nine states, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon and North and South Dakota.
In the past month, the drought has become less severe in parts of the Southwest, including Arizona. So-called monsoon rains have helped, Mr. Rosencrans said. These occur in summer when atmospheric conditions draw Pacific moisture into the region.
But elsewhere in the West, the dry and hot conditions have continued. The situation is particularly dire in California, where 49 percent of the state is in the most severe drought category. Farmers in the state have had sharp cuts in their water allotments, wells are going dry in some towns and several large wildfires are currently raging, including the Dixie fire, now the largest single fire in California history.
Over the next three months, the drought may develop in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, Mr. Rosencrans said. The only improvement may be in western parts of Oregon and Washington.
Some of the largest wildfires in U.S. history are burning across the American West this summer, charring vast swaths of forest land and threatening communities.
This interactive map built by The New York Times, using government and satellite data, is tracking wildfires as they spread across Western states. Check back regularly for updates.
As the Dixie Fire rages in California, plumes of noxious smoke have turned the air as far afield as Salt Lake City and Denver into some of the dirtiest in the world. Fires across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest last month turned the sun red as far away as New York City.
The smoky haze carries with it a range of health threats from mild eye and throat irritation to serious heart and respiratory issues that pose an especially high risk when compounded with similar symptoms caused by Covid-19. Research published this past week found that weakened immune response caused by exposure to wildfire smoke last summer could be associated with thousands of additional infections and hundreds of deaths from Covid-19.
Although smoke exposure and the coronavirus pose similar risks, protecting yourself from each requires different measures: cloth masks used to slow the spread of the virus offer little protection against the small, harmful particles in wildfire smoke, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
With hundreds of thousands of acres burning across the West, and fire season far from over, here’s a guide to how to keep yourself safe.
What are some of the harmful effects of wildfire smoke?
The wildfire smoke currently blanketing much of the West contains a mixture of gases and particles from burning trees and plants. The smallest of these particles — 2.5 micrometers and smaller, which are called PM 2.5 — can be inhaled into the deepest part of the lungs, and can cause the greatest health risks.
When people are exposed to these fine particles repeatedly or for long periods of time, they can be at greater risk of health problems. With fires sparking more often, lasting longer and spreading farther, those risks grow.
“We’re being exposed to more wildfires than ever,” said Mary Prunicki, an expert on the health effects of air pollution at Stanford University. “When a community is exposed to wildfire smoke, there will be an increase in respiratory disorders showing up in the emergency room and people being hospitalized with asthma and C.O.P.D. It exacerbates pneumonia, acute bronchitis.”
Wildfire exposure can also heighten the risk of strokes and create complications with pregnancies.
What are the best ways to protect myself from the harmful effects of wildfire smoke?
Because of the small size of PM 2.5, most masks will not do much to protect you from its toxins. According to the C.D.C., N95 and KN95 respirators can provide protection from both wildfire smoke and the coronavirus. But because of the limited supply of N95 respirators, the C.D.C. does not recommend their use outside of health care settings.
The best protection against smoke is to limit exposure.
“Don’t go by whether or not you can smell it,” said Ms. Prunicki, who also advised to limit physical activity outside. “Try not to do things that are going to cause you to breathe deeply,” she said.
Keep your house as protected from smoke as possible by keeping the windows closed and use a portable air cleaner. Create a “clean room”— a dedicated room in your house where you can keep windows and doors closed, and run fans, air-conditioners and portable air cleaners — and spend as much time there as possible.
How can I check the smoke conditions in my area?
Track the A.Q.I., or Air Quality Index, to ensure the air quality is within a healthy range before spending time outside.
The Air Quality Index was established by the Environmental Protection Agency, and measures the density of five pollutants: ground-level ozone, particulates, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide.
The index runs from 0 to 500. If it shows a number that’s less than 100, then air pollution is below the level known to cause adverse health effects. When the index registers more than 100, the outdoor air remains safe for many, but some people, like older adults, children and those with heart and lung disease, are at increased risk. A number above 200 is considered “very unhealthy.”
You can find the A.Q.I. in your area on the website AirNow, which is run by the E.P.A. and also has separate fire and smoke maps.
Dixie. August Complex. Not Creative.
The top three finishers in the Belmont Stakes? No, those are the names of wildfires that have burned across the American West in recent years.
Unlike hurricanes, which are given human names from a list chosen in advance by the World Meteorological Organization, wildfires get their names in a much more intuitive way: Whatever makes it the easiest for firefighters to find a blaze and for nearby residents to consistently track the fire’s path.
Some of those burning right now include the South Yaak Fire in Montana (after the Yaak Valley), the Tamarack Fire in California (after a town) and the nation’s largest blaze this year, the Dixie Fire (after a nearby road).
Usually, fires get their names based on where they originate, fire officials have said. They’re named for winding rural roads, nearby landmarks or mountain peaks.
Although the Dixie Fire started some distance from where Dixie Road appears on maps, Rick Carhart, a Butte County spokesman for Cal Fire, California’s state fire agency, said it demonstrates how “remote and inaccessible” the blaze was for firefighters.
“Even though it didn’t start on the side of Dixie Road, it was the closest thing,” he said. Mr. Carhart noted that Dixie Road appears close to Camp Creek Road, after which 2018’s deadly Camp Fire was named.
Lynnette Round, a spokeswoman for Cal Fire, said that also means multiple blazes can end up with the same name.
There has been more than one River Fire, for instance. And in 2017, during a busy year, the blaze that came to be known as the Lilac Fire in San Diego County was actually the fifth one to be given that name.
Ms. Round said the first fire officials on the scene often name a blaze, and the moniker is almost never changed.
“If it changes, you’ll confuse people,” she said. Residents who have fled their homes might not know which fire they should be paying attention to if names shift. And fire officials might get confused about where to send resources.
Sometimes, fires burn together and effectively merge. If that happens, as it did with the Dixie Fire and the Fly Fire, officials will typically start using the larger fire’s name for both.
Last year, unusual lightning storms sparked many fires across California. “When they all run together, they become a complex fire,” Ms. Round said.
Such was the case with the August Complex, the largest fire on record in California, which burned more than a million acres last year. It ignited in August, heralding the early start of a record-breaking fire season.
Occasionally, there won’t be a significant landmark close to a fire’s ignition point. So officials will get creative. (Or not.)
That’s how, during the summer of 2015, officials named a blaze in southeast Idaho “Not Creative,” according to reports. A spokeswoman for the Idaho Department of Lands told NPR the name was selected after a long day of firefighting.
Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday and could reach the Northeast coast of the United States by Sunday or Monday, meteorologists said on Thursday.
Hurricane-strength winds in Northeastern states like Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts would be unusual, should they arrive. The last time a hurricane made landfall in New England was 30 years ago.
But meteorologists are not yet sure which path the storm will take over the weekend, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the Hurricane Center in Miami.
“There’s a great deal of uncertainty on the track forecast and the intensity forecast that far out,” he said. “The homework assignment for everybody up there is, one, check your supplies and, two, pay attention to the forecast updates, because they will be changing.”
Henri, which developed on Monday off the East Coast of the United States, is the latest of a trio of storms that recently formed in the Atlantic Ocean. Most of the attention this week was on Tropical Depression Fred, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon as a tropical storm, and Tropical Storm Grace, which came ashore in Haiti as a tropical depression before making landfall in Mexico on Thursday as a hurricane.
As of 11 a.m. on Thursday, Henri was 450 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. The storm was moving west at 10 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 65 m.p.h., the National Hurricane Center said.
Henri was expected to keep moving west until Friday or Saturday, when forecasters said that they expected it to turn north toward New England.
“Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing,” the center said in an update on Thursday afternoon. “Watches will likely be required for portions of this area early Friday.”
How to Decode Hurricane Season Terms
Karen Zraick and Christina CaronReporting on the weather 🌬️
How to Decode Hurricane Season Terms
Karen Zraick and Christina CaronReporting on the weather 🌬️
What is “landfall”? And what are you truly facing when you’re in the eye of the storm?
During hurricane season, news coverage and forecasts can include a host of confusing terms. Let’s take a look at what they mean →
There were no warnings or watches associated with Henri as of Thursday afternoon, but the Hurricane Center said that it could produce hazardous rip currents along the East Coast, as well as heavy rains in southeastern New England on Sunday and Monday.
“Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend,” the center said on Thursday. “These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
While it is not uncommon for there to be several active weather systems at once during hurricane season, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said, it is somewhat unusual to have three with tropical storm watches or warnings for land areas at the same time.
“It’s a busy period here,” Michael Brennan, the branch chief of the center’s hurricane specialist unit, said on Monday.
The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to see stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.
Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.
A major United Nations climate report released this month warned that nations have delayed curbing their fossil-fuel emissions for so long that they can no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years, leading to more frequent life-threatening heat waves and severe droughts. Tropical cyclones have likely become more intense over the past 40 years, the report said, a shift that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.
Ana became the first named storm of the season on May 23, making this the seventh year in a row that a named storm developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season on June 1.
In May, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, six to 10 of which would be hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic. In early August, in a midseason update to the forecast, they continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season will be an above average one, suggesting a busy end to the season.
Matthew Rosencrans, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that an updated forecast suggested that there would be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season on Nov. 30. Henri is the eighth named storm of 2021.
Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and move to using Greek letters.
It was the highest number of storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and included the second-highest number of hurricanes on record.
Derrick Bryson Taylor, Neil Vigdor, Jesus Jiménez and Jacey Fortin contributed reporting.
Hurricane Grace lashed the shoreline of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday morning, battering the beach town of Tulum with strong winds and heavy rain before weakening to a tropical storm.
Just days earlier, the same storm brought flooding to Haiti, hurting recovery efforts after a devastating earthquake struck the country on Saturday. Now, Grace is expected to reach hurricane strength once again as it churns toward the eastern shores of mainland Mexico.
More than 300 people were evacuated from their homes in Quintana Roo state on the Yucatán Peninsula, according to the state’s governor, Carlos Joaquín. The peninsula also faced widespread power failures. Flights to and from the international airport in Cancun were canceled overnight, but they resumed on Thursday morning.
Grace was about 105 miles northwest of Campeche, a port city on the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, according to a 10 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm was making its way west toward the gulf and was expected to gain strength again before making landfall as a hurricane on the eastern shores of Mexico’s mainland by late Friday or early Saturday, the center said.
A hurricane warning was in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a tropical storm warning was in effect north of Cabo Rojo and in parts of the Yucatán Peninsula.
The peninsula is no stranger to storms during hurricane season. Last August, Tropical Storm Marco skimmed the tip of it, and in October, Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Zeta struck the peninsula, knocking out power, felling trees, shattering windows and causing flooding along the Caribbean coast.
By early Wednesday, the authorities on the peninsula had already begun preparing for Grace, sharing photos on Twitter of dispatched equipment. By nightfall, some residents had relocated to shelters.
Now, the Mexican mainland is preparing for strengthening winds and pouring rain.
Central and northern parts of Veracruz state could get six to 12 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches, from Friday through Sunday, the center said. That could cause flooding and mudslides. Water levels could rise by three to five feet along the coast because of the storm surge, which could also produce “large and destructive waves.”
The northern-central part of the Yucatán Peninsula was forecast to receive up to eight inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 12 inches, through Friday.
Earlier this week, the storm brought sharp winds and pelting rain to survivors of the 7.2-magnitude earthquake that struck Haiti on Saturday and killed more than 2,000 people.
Grace’s arrival there intensified the need for help in recovering from the earthquake. Videos circulating on social media showed heavy rain pummeling towns and villages overnight and on Monday, bringing the risk of flash floods and landslides.
Grace is the seventh named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, following several days of floods and power outages unleashed this week by Fred. That storm made landfall on Monday afternoon in the Florida Panhandle and moved inland across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
A third Atlantic storm, Henri, formed on Monday afternoon as a tropical storm off the East Coast of the United States, becoming the eighth named storm of the hurricane season. It was tracking 490 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., on Thursday morning and was expected to gain hurricane strength before approaching southern New England on Sunday or Monday.
While it is not uncommon for there to be several active weather systems at once during hurricane season, forecasters said, it is somewhat unusual to have three with tropical storm watches or warnings for land areas at the same time.
“It’s a busy period here,” Michael Brennan, the branch chief of the center’s hurricane specialist unit, said on Monday.
The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to experience stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms. However, the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.
How to Decode Hurricane Season Terms
Karen Zraick and Christina CaronReporting on the weather 🌬️
How to Decode Hurricane Season Terms
Karen Zraick and Christina CaronReporting on the weather 🌬️
What is “landfall”? And what are you truly facing when you’re in the eye of the storm?
During hurricane season, news coverage and forecasts can include a host of confusing terms. Let’s take a look at what they mean →
Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.
A major United Nations climate report released this month warned that nations have delayed curbing their fossil-fuel emissions for so long that they can no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years, leading to more frequent life-threatening heat waves and severe droughts. Tropical cyclones have become more intense over the past 40 years, the report said, a shift that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.
In May, scientists with NOAA forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, six to 10 of which would be hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic. This month, in a midseason update to the forecast, they continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season would be above average, suggesting a busy end to the season.
Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA said that an updated forecast suggested there would be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season on Nov. 30.
Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and move to Greek letters.
It was the highest number of storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and included the second-highest number of hurricanes on record.
Alyssa Lukpat, Jacey Fortin, Jesus Jiménez, Neil Vigdor, Maria Abi-Habib, Andre Paulte, Derrick Bryson Taylor, Anatoly Kurmanaev, Oscar Lopez and Constant Méheut contributed reporting.
An earlier version of this article misidentified the Mexican state where Carlos Joaquín serves as governor. It is Quintana Roo, not Yucatán.