Treasurer forecasts ‘difficult and expensive’ winter
Jim Chalmers is up and about this morning doing the media rounds.
He also spoke about the gas trigger, while speaking to Sunrise:
[The trigger] is about making sure that we can intervene in gas markets to make enough of it here. The issue with the gas trigger, unfortunately, is even if we were to pull the trigger today, it would come into effect until the beginning of next year, so again, not a quick fix.
But there are some things we can do on pricing. The regulators have only taken some steps with some price caps and guarantees and those steps have been welcomed, and if there are further steps to take in there are further steps to take in the near term, we will take them, but the most important thing is a good long-term energy policy and that is what we will be implementing.
Chalmers acknowledged it would be a “difficult and expensive” winter despite measures the government could implement:
Unfortunately, we have a lot of outages either planned or unplanned and we have flooding which is impacting, but also some maintenance, a whole range of issues unfortunately coming out at once, so will be a difficult winter and it will be an expensive winter … we are in the minutes of a full-blown cost-of-living crisis.
Update from Indonesia:
Today we are headed to Makassar on Sulewesi for further engagements, it was a pleasure to meet with @Jokowi in Indonesia. Australia and Indonesia will continue working together to strengthen our cooperation and expand our relationship. pic.twitter.com/8kq6L8h00A
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) June 7, 2022
Tasmania records 776 new Covid cases
Tasmania has recorded 776 new Covid cases and no further deaths. There are 39 people being treated in hospital with the virus, none of them in ICU.
Peter Hannam
Consumer confidence takes a hammering
Before what’s expected to be another RBA rate rise this afternoon – the first back-to-back increase in 12 years – there are more signs of wilting consumer confidence in the economy.
The ANZ and Roy-Morgan’s latest weekly survey finds sentiment has dropped a further 4% to the lowest level in about 22 months, or roughly during the first Covid wave.
All the five confidence subindices registered losses and sentiment dimmed in all states but South Australia. NSW (where there’s a budget next week) and Queensland posted the biggest falls.
David Plank, ANZ’s head of Australian economics, said the confidence drop was “most likely on cost-of-living concerns as inflation expectations rose to 5.7%, its highest weekly reading since early April:
Consumers are especially pessimistic about the current economic outlook and their current financial circumstances.
Confidence dropped a similar amount for both consumers paying off their home loan as well as for those who own their home: 6.2% and 6.5%, respectively.
And it will be inflation expectations that the RBA will be monitoring like an eagle as a guide to how many times it will have to lift rates.
Investors, though, have their own ideas, and they are consistently pushing for steady rises well into next year (they have pencilled in some for January even though the RBA’s board by convention takes a break then):
Meanwhile, going into today’s expected RBA rate move, here’s what investors are projecting the “path of path” to be. There’s about a two-in-three chance the central bank will lift the cash rate by 40bp to 0.75%, in their view at least. #auspol pic.twitter.com/foz1YOg3yx
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 6, 2022
Some of the key themes are covered here, in case you missed it:
Australia open to high-level talks with China
Speaking of Richard Marles, the Australian government has left the door open for high-level dialogue with China as the deputy prime minister prepares to head to Singapore for a defence summit, AAP reports.
Marles says while a request for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Shangri La Dialogue at the end of the week hasn’t been received, Australia remains open to discussions.
It comes after Marles yesterday said he would not be seeking a meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the summit, leading to some confusion about whether Australia would reject any olive branches offered by Beijing. A spokesperson from his office said:
Deputy prime minister Marles said he has not received a formal invitation to meet with his counterpart at the Shangri La Dialogue. The Australian government has said that it welcomes the opportunity to resume ministerial dialogue with China.
China’s foreign minister told state media outlet Xinhua that Beijing will continue an “open attitude and carry out more trilateral or quadrilateral cooperation with Australia and New Zealand in the Pacific” as it tries to push a regional security deal with Pacific island nations.
Wang Yi previously said any defrosting in China and Australia’s relationship would need to be sparked by “concrete actions”.
Marles says he is hoping to organise discussions with United States defence secretary Lloyd Austin.
Austin is addressing the conference about US Indo-Pacific defence policy, while China’s minister of national defence Wei Fenghe will speak about Beijing’s vision for the Asia-Pacific.
Don’t underestimate the brutal honesty of young children, deputy prime minister.
’Ndrangheta ‘pulling the strings’ of organise crime in Australia
Ryan says “in many ways” the ’Ndrangheta are the ones “pulling the strings” of different other organised crime groups, particularly more violent groups like motorcycle gangs:
Historically the ’Ndrangheta, mafia-type organisations, were directly responsible for the violence and the intimidation. Now more so we see that it is more about their reputation and that violence, that apprehension, is borne about from the reputation of the ’Ndrangheta. When if actually comes to the actual violence on the a lot of that plays out more in terms of I guess some of the puppets they control in Australian organised crime.
AFP issues warning to Italian crime families
“Why are you doing this”, Ryan is asked, “why are you alerting them?”
We’re certainly not giving up our whole hand here.
It’s become apparent, very apparent … that the Italians have been able to fly under the radar for many, many years. The Italians have established themselves since the early 1920s in Australia and the way that they’ve operated over the years has actually changed and they’ve been able to, in many ways, legitimise their business and their ill-gotten gains. So this is really a warning to Italian organised crime that they’re on our radar.
What we’re actually doing here is they’ve been able to operate in darkness for so long that we’re shining a light on it. The ’Ndrangheta pride themselves on the fact that they … work in this secrecy and silence and this loyalty. We need to really draw that out because what it’s doing in terms of our society is not on. We want to attack them at the source.
‘Multimillion dollars a day are being laundered in Australia’
Ryan says this is a “warning” to Italian organised crime that “they’re on our radar”. The majority of ’Ndrangheta’s 5,000 Australian members are Australian citizens.
The AFP has started mapping familial relationships of the ’Ndrangheta in Australia, attacking finances, communications and operations.
Multimillion dollars a day are being laundered in Australia on behalf of illicit drug syndicates that try and conceal their source of wealth. Money laundering poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security as it subverts, exploits and distorts legitimate markets and economic activity. A key strategy in disrupting illicit drug trafficking involves dismantling the money laundering organisations that move and legitimise drug profits.
Unleashing this next phase will be long and challenging but the AFP is up to the challenge. And, to be frank, we need to be. If we don’t cut off the head and tail of organised crime, we face living in a very different Australia.
About 51 organised Italian crime clans operate in Australia, AFP says
Ryan says for the past 12 months, it has used intelligence to understand how transnational organised crime syndicates operate and communicate.
It is estimated about 51 organised Italian crime clans operate in Australia, at least 14 of them being ’Ndrangheta, responsible for 70% to 80% of the world’s cocaine.
These targets now include Italian organised crime, namely the ’Ndrangheta. They also include those who facilitate billions of dollars in money laundering in Australia each year. The ’Ndrangheta are not just an Australian problem. They are a global problem. They are responsible for 70% to 80% of the world’s cocaine and they are flooding Australia with illicit drugs. They are pulling the strings of Australian outlaw motorcycle gangs who are behind some of the most significant violence in our communities.
We believe we have about 51 Italian organised crime clans in Australia and to date we have confirmed at least 14 of these as being ’Ndrangheta, which we believe have thousands of members in Australia. They have been able to stay under the radar by living modest lives in modest homes. They funnel their illegitimate wealth into their legitimate construction, agricultural and catering businesses. I want to underscore that AFP targets criminal syndicates, not countries nor ethnic groups.
Operation Ironside crackdown on organised crime
Assistant AFP commissioner Nigel Ryan is providing an update on organised crime, including Italian crime and money launderers.
Ryan says over the lifetime of Operation Ironside, the AFP and domestic partners have executed 769 search warrants, charging 383 alleged offenders:
We also seized about 6.3 tonnes of illicit drugs, 147 weapons and $55.6m in cash. Outside of Australia, more than 700 alleged offenders have been charged and 65 tonnes of illicit drugs have been seized.
The AFP has developed 54 target packages for our international partners who are using this intelligence to take further action against alleged offenders in their own countries. This global takedown of organised crime was enabled because of the dedication of the AFP, the FBI and our key partners.
Melbourne based hound lovers – this one’s for you.
“Very good doggos” around inner-city Melbourne could benefit from one of eight new dog parks under consideration via a City of Melbourne proposal to double the number of off leash areas.
At a committee meeting tonight, councillors will consider designating eight new off leash areas for dogs in parks across West Melbourne, Southbank, Carlton, Dockloads, Kensington, Parkville and East Melbourne.
Dog registrations have increased by more than 20% in the past two years in Melbourne, part of a “pandemic puppy” lockdown boom.
Top dogs across the municipality include Cavoodles, Labradors and Jack Russell Terrier crosses.
Mayor Sally Capp:
With a growing population of Lunas, Buddys and Milos, we see a need to up the ante when it comes to designated spaces for pooches large and small to run free – to exercise and socialise with their friends.
PM heads to Makassar
Anthony Albanese’s visit to Indonesia continues today as he aims to solidify ties with the nation.
He is flying to Makassar, a port city and the capital of South Sulawesi, a province Indonesia’s president wants to develop. Makassar is the largest city in Indonesia’s east with a population of about 1.4 million, including a sizeable Chinese community.
Good morning from a humid Jakarta. The prime minister is on the 2nd day of his trip to Indonesia, flying to Makassar where he will give a speech, meet with the local governor and tour a nearby factory pic.twitter.com/x8QuhO5hJw
— Andrew Brown (@AndrewBrownAU) June 6, 2022
Here’s the latest analysis from Katharine Murphy:
Anthony Albanese says Australia’s economic relationship with Indonesia has “struggled to keep pace” with the country’s “extraordinary economic rise” but the new government in Canberra will dig in behind emerging opportunities, including partnerships in clean energy.