It’s not great news, but don’t panic: Astronomers spotted an asteroid that has a roughly 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Space agencies are monitoring the newly discovered asteroid and still learning more about its size and path, so don’t mark your calendar for doomsday just yet.
The asteroid’s odds of smacking Earth have gone up in recent days, but that number is not set in stone. There’s a lot still left to learn about the space rock.
The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first reported by the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27. The MPC, part of the International Astronomical Union, maintains an official catalog of near-Earth objects like asteroids and comets. It reports, names and numbers new discoveries. The asteroid was spotted by multiple observatories.
The European Space Agency placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its asteroid risk list. Similarly, the space rock now has the top spot on NASA’s Sentry risk list. The Sentry list contains all known near-Earth asteroids with a non-zero probability of striking Earth.
Rating asteroids and their impact hazards
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale rates potential asteroid and comet impacts. The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 sits in the middle of the yellow zone with a 3 rating. White is no hazard; red is the most hazardous.
The asteroid is rated at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used for categorizing potential impacts. That means 2024 YR4 merits attention from astronomers, the public and public officials since a possible strike is less than a decade away.
“An object that reaches this level is not uncommon; there have been several objects in the past that have reached this same rating and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,” NASA said in a statement on Jan. 29.
The highest level on the Torino Scale is a 10, which indicates a certain collision capable of catastrophic damage on a global level.
Current data shows 2024 YR4 is the only known large asteroid with an impact probability above 1%. The asteroid’s numbers have been inching up. It started at a roughly 1% impact probability, then NASA revised that to 2.3% on Feb. 7. Now, the Sentry entry for 2024 YR4 shows 3.1%.
“Note that often, counterintuitively, the odds of impact go up before they drop to zero,” said Planetary Society Chief Scientist Bruce Betts in a statement in January. Betts noted the increase is usually temporary. Scientists will build a more accurate picture of the asteroid’s future path as additional data comes in.
“The key takeaway is the increase is expected at this stage and is not a cause for concern,” Planetary Society spokesperson Danielle Gunn told CNET over email.
NASA reminds people there’s currently a 96.9% chance the asteroid won’t impact our planet. Those are strong odds in our favor.
Size estimates of asteroid 2024 YR4
The NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile captured imagery of asteroid 2024 YR4.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. For scale, the Statue of Liberty (pedestal included) is about 300 feet tall. That’s worrisome for an asteroid, but it’s not a “planet killer.”
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” ESA said in a statement. That’s why you might see the asteroid referred to as a “city killer” in some headlines.
The James Webb Space Telescope will set its sights on the asteroid in March to get a better idea of the space rock’s size. NASA did not immediately respond to a request for comment on what Webb could tell us about 2024 YR4.
What’s next for asteroid 2024 YR4
An illustration of NASA’s DART spacecraft
Space agencies and organizations are coordinating efforts to track the asteroid and better understand its trajectory and size.
The asteroid is currently on the move away from Earth. ESA is planning a series of observations that will include the use of the powerful Very Large Telescope in Chile.
“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032,” ESA said. “In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.”
NASA and other space agencies have been working on planetary defense options in the case of a dangerous asteroid. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission successfully redirected an asteroid moonlet by smashing a spacecraft into it in 2022. ESA suggested a spacecraft-based response may be explored if 2024 YR4 turns out to be a serious threat.
NASA has a page dedicated to 2024 YR4 so the public can stay updated on the latest information about the asteroid.
A lot of new information could emerge about the asteroid over the next few months. In the best-case scenario, it will be downgraded from “uh-oh” to “everything’s fine, no need to worry.”