COVID-19 numbers in India on a decline; experts explain what could be the reasons

Coronavirus cases in the country have witnessed some decline since last month. The decline has come regardless of the ease in travel restrictions and other activities that have begun to return to normalcy. What’s more interesting is that the government-appointed scientific committee which has been looking at the Coronavirus growth trend in India has stated that the viral outbreak peaked last month, without giving much information as to what is leading the decline in COVID-19 cases. Two members of the committee have come up with some explanations on the same, according to a report by The IE.

Citing a member of the committee Prof Manindra Agrawal, the report said that some case studies have been done in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu region. The journals indicated that almost 70 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 have stopped passing the viral infection to others. The virus was spreading through a small set of people also known as super-spreaders. Agrawal said that these super spreaders usually get the infection in the early stages of outbreak adding that there is a possibility that these super-spreaders got the infection earlier and now they have become immune. A very few are left to transmit the viral infection to others. This could be a possible reason for decline in India’s Coronavirus declining numbers, said Agrawal.

It is to note that super-spreaders are capable of infecting a large number of people. Agrawal explained that the super-spreaders (could be a vegetable vendor) interact with many people in a single day, thus increasing the chances of transmission. Once they are taken out, or become incapable of spreading the infection, the new number of positive cases automatically reduces.

Another member of the committee, Prof Gagandeep Kang who is also an expert on infectious diseases and professor at Christian Medical College in Vellore pointed out that with restrictions imposed, people are just interacting with those who belong to their close circle. Since there are not many interactions between random people (for example on trains and buses), the transmission remains confined to the closed group. Kang further said that there is still a lot that is unclear and more data is required to establish the reason. She said that the decline is similar to what the European countries experienced some time back.

While a decline in the number of COVID-19 growth is surely a relief for many, Kang warned that people still have to be careful with ongoing festivals, air pollution and approaching winters.