Coronavirus in India: Despite better infra, more people are dying in the cities

Cities, like Delhi and Mumbai, may be better equipped in terms of health infrastructure than states like Bihar and Odisha but they continue to report a higher ratio of new deaths. Indeed, cities are recording more deaths per 1,000 cases than other regions.

Mumbai, for instance, registered 26 deaths for every 1,000 cases on September 20.

While the ratio has come down from 47 deaths per 1,000 infections a month ago, it is still higher than the 23 deaths per 1,000 registered in Maharashtra.

Ahmedabad and Kolkata are no different. Ahmedabad’s death ratio for every thousand cases at 19, is higher than Gujarat’s ratio of 12. Similarly, Kolkata registered 31 deaths per thousand, but West Bengal accounted for a much lower 19.

While Delhi has much lower death incidence of 11 deaths per 1,000, this is even lower in Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Kerala and Telangana. Odisha recorded the lowest level, only three deaths for every 1,000 cases, whereas Bihar recorded four on September 20.

While most states have seen a dip in new deaths over the last month, they are rising in certain states. Himachal Pradesh was recording only two deaths for every 1,000 cases a month ago, and now has 25. Although the rise is only marginal in Punjab, deaths have increased from 41 per thousand to 42 and the state has the highest incidence of deaths across the country.

On Sunday, India reported 86,752 deaths, 40% of which were added in the last one month. While the case fatality rate has declined from 1.9% of August 20 to 1.6% on September 20 — it had touched a high of 3.4% – if India keeps up this pace, it will cross one lakh deaths within a fortnight.

An analysis of daily deaths data shows that India’s daily death rate is declining. While on August 20, 16 people died for every 1,000 cases that the country recorded, on September 20, this ratio had declined to 13.

The US, on the other hand, registers 21 new deaths for every thousand infections. Business resumption has been defying the pandemic, picking up through August and accelerating further in mid-September. Nomura economists remain cautious on its sustainability, as a rising number of cases could lead to localised lockdowns or a more cautious consumer.

After briefly plateauing in June-July, the tracker has been picking up through August and raced ahead to a post-lockdown high of 81.6 on September 13, around 18pp below the pre-pandemic normal.