It is a mini assembly election in Madhya Pradesh. Nineteen districts are going to assembly bypolls for 28 seats on November 3. These seats fell vacant due to resignations of 25 Congress MLAs and death of three sitting MLAs.
The ruling BJP and the Congress are locked in intense electioneering that saw former Chief Minister Kamal Nath stirring up a controversy with his “item” remark about a woman politician and incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sitting on a protest.
Madhya Pradesh Assembly election in 2018 had ousted the BJP from its 15-year-rule bringing the Congress to power with the support of Independent MLAs and smaller parties. But the Congress’s victory proved to be short-lived.
The BJP returned to power in March this year via defection of 22 Congress MLAs. They resigned and joined the BJP along with Jyotiraditya Scindia, who was later elected to the Rajya Sabha as a BJP member. Three more MLAs followed suit.
CAN CONGRESS MAKE A COMEBACK?
Madhya Pradesh bypolls don’t seem to be a worry for the BJP as it needs to win only nine of the 28 seats to stay in power. The Congress, however, needs to win all 28 to make a comeback.
In the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, a party or coalition needs 116 MLAs to win majority. The BJP currently has 107 MLAs. The Congress has 88 MLAs.
Traditionally, the ruling parties in states have had advantage in assembly bypolls. And, in Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has to ensure victory on less than one-third of the seats going to bypolls.
For Kamal Nath, there is a second possible equation that can bring him back to power in Madhya Pradesh. If he wins at least 21 of the 28 seats for the Congress, then he can try convince four Independent, two BSP and one SP legislators to support his bid for a return to power.
So, the BJP will have to win eight or less seats in Madhya Pradesh Assembly bypolls for the Congress to come back to power. Even a hardcore Congress supporter in Madhya Pradesh finds it “fanciful” when the BJP is ruling the state.
A TEST FOR SHIVRAJ, SCINDIA
Shivraj Singh Chouhan has not been his usual flamboyant self in the fourth tenure of chief ministership. He has had to accommodate Scindia loyalists in his cabinet and then agree to field all 25 Congress rebels bracing opposition from his own party leaders.
Reports from the poll battleground indicate that Shivraj Singh Chouhan has largely managed to assuage the feeling of anguish among party cadres.
The Madhya Pradesh byelection battle is centred on Gwalior-Chambal region 16 of 28 bypoll seats are here. This is also the sphere of influence of Jyotiraditya Scindia, who engineered a change of government in Madhya Pradesh, and also of Union minister Narendra Tomar.
Scindia has to prove that he actually wields political influence over the voters and those who defected from the Congress to the BJP in the Gwalior-Chambal region. He had lost the Lok Sabha election last year from here. Madhya Pradesh bypolls are a matter of prestige for Scindia.
His entry into the BJP has complicated the power balance within the party in the bypoll battleground. Tomar, whom many consider as a rival to Chouhan, too has his prestige at stake in the bypolls.
WHAT ABOUT CONGRESS, DEFECTORS?
In the Congress camp, Kamal Nath is campaigning to highlight that Chouhan is no longer effective after returning to power through defection. He has been alleging mishandling of the Covid-19 situation in Madhya Pradesh in his campaign.
Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh and his son Jaivardhan Singh too have much at stake in the bypolls. They hail from the Gwalior-Chambal region. It is also a battle between the royal influences of Scindia and Digvijaya Singh. They had a strained relationship within the Congress. The rivalry is only more intense now.
Digvijaya Singh seems to use the bypolls to give a push to Jaivardhan’s political career. While Digvijaya Singh is active in the background, Jaivardhan is more visible in coordinating the Congress’s campaign with Kamal Nath.
The Congress is investing so much in the Madhya Pradesh bypolls that it has promised a government job to each family that has lost a member to Covid-19 pandemic should the byelection return it power.
The 25 defector-MLAs are not having it easy either. They had launched an all-out campaign against the BJP less than two years ago. Now, they are seeking re-election on that party’s ticket. They have to explain to their voters as to why they “betrayed” their parent party, which was in power.
Clearly, the Madhya Pradesh Assembly bypolls mean different things to different political camps. While the BJP may not feel insecure about the stability of Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government and Kamal Nath may wish to spring a surprise, it is Jyotiraditya Scindia who has maximum at stake. There are talks that if Scindia wins enough number of seats for the BJP, he may find a “respectable” portfolio in the Narendra Modi cabinet at the Centre.