India now has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases globally, and the eighth-highest number of deaths worldwide. However, in terms of growth rate of Covid-19 deaths, India’s numbers exceed any other country.
According to health ministry data, India had recorded 16,893 deaths on June 30, which spiked to 19,693 on July 6 – a growth rate of 2.6 per cent against the global average of 0.9 per cent in the same period.
On July 5, India recorded 613 deaths – its biggest single-day rise so far if we do not count reconciliations issued by Maharashtra on June 16 for which more than 2,000 deaths were recorded in a single day.
India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) analysed statistics for countries with more than 10,000 Covid-19 deaths and found that not only is India facing a high growth rate in terms of deaths, but also an upward sloping daily death curve.
Countries that follow India are Mexico (2.1 per cent), Brazil and Peru (1.8 per cent), Russia (1.7 per cent) and Iran (1.4 per cent). Even the United States, with the highest mortality of over 1.3 lakh, recorded a growth rate of 0.5 per cent in the last one week – lower than the global average.
India’s twin troubles
On one side, growth rate of Covid-19 fatalities is not coming down significantly in India, and on the other, it is faced by a spike in daily deaths. For the last three weeks, growth rate of Covid-19 deaths in the country has been above 2.5 per cent.
The seven-day rolling average of new deaths is also moving upwards. Based on our calculations, India’s seven-day rolling average of new deaths on July 6 was 460. This means on an average, India added 460 deaths every day in the last one week and we haven’t reached the peak yet! Just three months ago, daily deaths in India had averaged 10.
The US has been able to bring down daily deaths from over 2,500 to 600. On July 6, according to “Our World in Data”, the US recorded 271 deaths. India recorded 425 deaths on the same day.
Not only the US, but other countries with high fatalities have also recorded a significant fall in daily deaths in the same time frame (after daily deaths averaged 10).
The United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain and Mexico have recorded more than 25,000 Covid-19 deaths. However, the seven-day rolling average shows significant downtrend in these countries. Brazil is an exception where daily deaths are averaging above 1,000. But the curve here is plateauing if not bending. The same cannot be said for India.
India’s regional heterogeneity at play
Using health ministry data, DIU looked at state-wise Covid-19 death trajectory.
Data shows Covid-19 deaths are rising sharply in Karnataka. In the last one week, deaths here have gone up from 226 to 372, doubling every eight days. The national average is 27 days.
Covid-19 deaths are doubling in Tamil Nadu every 14 days. The state recorded 370 deaths in the last one week, and a total of 1,510 as of July 6. This makes Tamil Nadu and Karnataka the only two states with over 300 deaths where fatalities are increasing faster than the national average.
In the last week, India lost 2,800 people to coronavirus – 90 per cent of them alone in the eight states of Maharashtra (43 per cent), Delhi (14 per cent), Tamil Nadu (13 per cent), Karnataka (5 per cent), Gujarat (4 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (4 per cent), West Bengal (4 per cent) and Rajasthan (2 per cent).
Just a month ago, Karnataka did not contribute even one per cent of India’s weekly new deaths. But 5 per cent of India’s deaths this week were recorded in this southern state. Gujarat’s share of deaths to the national tally, however, has come down from 10 per cent to 4 per cent in the same period.
Overall, Maharashtra and Delhi between them account for around 60 per cent of India’s Covid-19 deaths.
In order to control rising cases, Karnataka has announced a lockdown every Sunday till August 2 in Bengaluru. Interestingly, Turkey had also announced a weekend lockdown when Covid-19 cases had surged.
Daily deaths keep rising
So far, none of the worst affected states have been able to bring down daily death figures significantly.
The seven-day rolling average of new deaths is rising in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Bengal, with Maharashtra having the highest. Daily deaths averaged 199 in Maharashtra, 63 Delhi, 62 in Tamil Nadu, 23 in Karnataka, 19 in Gujarat, and 17 in UP and Bengal.
Of these, the daily death curve is plateauing in Delhi, Gujarat and UP since there is no significant reduction in daily deaths. In Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the Covid-19 death curve is sloping upwards, which means daily deaths are increasing.
