The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising the BJP, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP) commands a 6 percentage point vote share lead over the principal opposition alliance of the RJD, Congress and Left parties.
The Lokniti-CSDS opinion poll that revealed this data suggests that if these numbers hold true on the polling day, the NDA will secure 38 per cent votes in the Bihar assembly elections.
In comparison to this, the opposition alliance, named as Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance, is projected to secure only 32 per cent votes.
However, while the opinion poll shows NDA ahead with a 6 percentage point lead in the vote share, the cumulative NDA votes would be down by about 5 per cent from the last assembly elections.
In contrast, the opinion poll predicts that the Grand Alliance will see an increase of 3.5 per cent in its vote share.
Despite this trend, the NDA alliance maintains a substantial overall lead when it comes to the alliance wise vote share numbers at this stage of the election race.
Voting intention for Bihar assembly elections between Oct 10 and 17
Alliance | 2020 Vidhan Sabha Pre Poll Oct 10-17* % | 2015 Vidhan Sabha Actual vote share % |
NDA (BJP-JDU-HAM-VIP) | 38 | 43.2 |
MGB (RJD-INC-CPIML-CPI-CPM) | 32 | 28.5 |
GDSF (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS) | 7 | 4.9 |
LJP | 6 | 4.8 |
Other parties and Independents | 17 | 18.6 |
*Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll Survey in Bihar; Sample size: 3731
The prospects of the NDA are helped by the presence of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF), comprising the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha, Mayawati’s BSP and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.
This alliance, which has projected itself as the third front, is projected to bag 7 per cent votes in the state elections.
The votes of the GDSF are largely anti-incumbency votes and the presence of this third front, leads to a higher than normal fragmentation of the opposition votes.
Apart from this, what also works to the NDA’s advantage is that Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is playing the role of a vote cutter. The LJP is expected to bag 6 per cent votes.
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