The Lok Janshakti Party, which is going solo in the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, will help the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win by cutting the anti-incumbency votes, the Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Opinion Poll has predicted.
The pre-poll survey, conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in Bihar between October 10 and 17, asked the voters who they are likely to vote. At least 38 per cent mentioned the NDA — which consists of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Janata Dal-United, Hindustan Awam Morcha and Vikassheel Insan Party as their first choice.
The Mahagathbandhan (grand-alliance) of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress and the Left parties was picked by 32 per cent of voters polled for the survey.
Interestingly, Chirag Paswan’s LJP which hopes to make a government the BJP post-polls was the first choice of only 6 per cent voters.
According to the survey, the LJP is helping NDA win by cutting down the anti-incumbency votes against CM Nitish Kumar. Interestingly, only a few days ago, the BJP called Chirag Paswan’s LJP a “vote katwa” (vote cutter) party.
Reacting to the Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Opinion Poll, LJP chief Chirag Paswan claimed that his party will win more seats than Nitish Kumar’s JDU.
The prospects of the NDA are also helped by the presence of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) which comprises the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha, Mayawati’s BSP and Owaisi’s AIMIM.
The GDSF is projected to bag 7 per cent of the votes in the state elections. The votes of the GDSF are largely anti-incumbency votes and the presence of this third front leads to a higher than normal fragmentation of the opposition votes.
Seat distribution
In 243-member Bihar Assembly, the magic figure is 122 seats. The Lokniti-CSDS survey projects that the NDA will cross the halfway mark by securing 133-143 seats and the Mahagathbandhan will get between 88-98 seats. The LJP is projected to bag between 2-6 seats.
The BJP’s strike rate is likely to be higher than that of the JDU. The LJP candidates appear to be damaging the prospects of the JDU on a significant number of seats.
Even though the GDSF may bag 7 per cent of the votes but this is unlikely to translate into too many seats.