The Supreme Court today cleared the path for holding the Bihar Assembly election 2020 on time. Dismissing a petition seeking a postponement of the Bihar Assembly election, the Supreme Court said Covid-19 cannot be a ground for stopping elections and interfering with the powers of the Election Commission of India (ECI).
“Covid is not a valid reason for postponement of the election,” the Supreme Court observed.
The petition had been filed following a loud chorus from Opposition parties in Bihar demanding deferment of the assembly election scheduled for October-November in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ruling NDA constituent the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) president Chirag Paswan too favoured deferring the Bihar Assembly election till Covid-19 pandemic situation improves in the state.
But now the Bihar Assembly election is on the horizon. And, both the ruling alliance and the Opposition camp are still fighting to tame their respective seat-sharing demons. The ruling NDA has not yet agreed on a seat-sharing formula for the 243-seat Bihar Assembly election. In the rival camp, jailed RJD president Lalu Prasad has floated a formula that is yet to be finalised.
THE CAMPS
The Bihar Assembly election 2020 is set against a contrasting background compared to the 2015 state polls. Back then, the RJD of Lalu Prasad and the JDU of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar were together and had the Congress as their third alliance partner. The alliance was called the Mahagathbandhan.
The BJP contested in alliance with the LJP, the Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) of former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) of former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha.
This time around, the JDU is back with the BJP. The RLSP has crossed over to the Mahagathbandhan. And the HAM, which has quit the NDA, is back in the scheme of things.
In the Mahagathbandhan, the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) or the CPI-ML and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) have joined hands with the RJD and the Congress.
A new entrant in the Bihar Assembly election is the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Bollywood set designer-turned-politician Mukesh Sahani.
Sahani was a star campaigner for the BJP in the 2015 Bihar Assembly election. But he was part of the Mahagathbandhan in 2019 Lok Sabha polls fielding candidates on three of 40 seats in Bihar.
NDA: SEAT-SHARING POSTURING
Both the camps have an undecided seat-sharing situation for the Bihar Assembly election, which may be just six weeks away. For the ruling alliance, a general agreement was arrived at during the Lok Sabha election under which the BJP and the JDU would contest equal number of seats.
CM Nitish Kumar is learnt to be pushing for a greater share of seats in the Bihar Assembly election for his JDU given that he is also the chief ministerial face of the NDA. In a bid to stake his claim, Nitish Kumar recently inducted six sitting MLAs from the RJD into his JDU.
The six MLAs are from the seats that the BJP or the LJP had contested in 2015. This is being considered as a move by Nitish Kumar to stake claim on these seats before a final seat-sharing arrangement. This appears to have irked the BJP.
Bihar BJP chief Sanjay Jaiswal, the Lok Sabha MP from Bettiah, in an unusually sharp reaction to the JDU move said the BJP will contest all its traditional seats in Bihar Assembly election. He also said the BJP has 76 lakh workers and will not promote an outsider.
On the other hand, LJP chief Chirag Paswan also has laid claim to bigger share and presented himself as a future CM candidate. His party had contested 42 seats in 2015 but could win only two. But the party’s strike rate was 100 per cent in the 2019 parliamentary polls
With Paswan criticising Nitish Kumar over governance issues and building pressure for a greater seat-share, Kumar has almost drafted in Jitan Ram Manjhi into the NDA fold. Both Paswan and Manjhi are from Dalit community.
Paswan is considered to be close to the BJP. Manjhi seems to be Nitish’s counter to Paswan in the NDA.
MAHAGATHBANDHAN: LALU SETS THE TONE
Lalu Prasad, serving a jail term after conviction in a fodder scam case, remains the top leader in the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. He has floated a formula that has the RJD contesting 150-160 seats. The Congress will contest on the rest. Other partners are to be allocated seats by these parties from their respective quotas.
The RJD will field candidates from VIP and the CPI-ML on seats allocated to the party. The Congress will have to accommodate the RLSP, the CPI and the CPI-M. The coming together of the CPI and the RJD is being compared with the joining of hands by Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar ahead of 2015 state polls, though in a reduced degree.
Lalu Prasad’s younger son and former Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar Tejashwai Yadav was in New Delhi recently, reportedly, with the seat-sharing proposal for a meeting with the Congress leadership. He was supposed to meet Ahmed Patel, who heads the three-member committee of the Congress for the Bihar election.
It is not clear whether the meeting could take place during the four-day stay of Tejashwi Yadav in Delhi as the Congress was busy defusing the ‘letter bomb’ dropped by a ginger group of 23 party veterans. The Congress is learnt to have some reservation with the sharing of seats from its quota.
Then there is another problem. VIP chief Mukesh Sahani is reported to have put a condition that if the Mahagathbandhan wins, he would be the deputy chief minister.
Mukesh Sahani claims he has the support of about 2 crore Nishads, the traditional boat-people of Bihar. They form about 30 per cent of the entire Dalit voters in Bihar. The RJD is not willing to concede to this demand by Mukesh Sahani.
So, while the Bihar is heading to assembly election, it is not yet clear who is contesting from where at a time when poll campaign is expected to be more virtual than physical. Covid-19 pandemic and flood are going to test electioneering skills of all the contestants.