The wily politician that he is, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh has attempted setting the cat among the grumbling NDA pigeons ahead of the Bihar Assembly election. Addressing a virtually rally, he offered Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, the patron of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) the opportunity to join the Mahagathbandhan — the grand-alliance of the RJD and the Congress in Bihar.
The offer comes ahead of the upcoming Bihar Assembly election for which the ruling NDA finds itself in a difficult spot over maintaining a coalition balance. The LJP is unhappy with the Janata Dal United of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
LJP president Chirag Paswan, the son of Ram Vilas Paswan, has been unrelenting in his attack on Nitish Kumar over the issues of governance, corruption, law and order, employment and development.
MANJHI-STROKE
His constant barbs at the government forced Nitish Kumar to bring estranged Jitan Ram Manjhi of the Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) back into the coalition fold.
Both Paswans and Manjhi drive their political strength from Dalit politics. Dalits have a significant 17 per cent share in Bihar’s electorate.
If both Paswans and Manjhi stay in the NDA fold, the ruling alliance appears strong on paper. But this pits them against one another as both vie for the same vote bank, and hence find the option of staying together puts a “limit” to their growth, especially for the Paswans.
The LJP and the HAM were part of the NDA in 2015 Bihar Assembly election. But those polls were dictated by the coming together of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad. The LJP and HAM both had enough space to get as many seats to contest as they wanted.
PASWAN’S LOYALTY
The Bihar Assembly election 2020 is different. Ram Vilas Paswan got his son appointed as the LJP president in November last year to give him enough time to campaign for the Bihar election.
The LJP has stayed with the BJP since 2014 — an alliance that happened due to a strong push by Chirag Paswan — unlike Nitish Kumar who had quit the NDA ahead of 2014 Lok Sabha polls opposing Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial candidature before combing back into the fold in 2017. The Paswans hope their “loyalty” will pay greater dividends in Bihar Assembly election 2020.
With this understanding, the LJP is understood to have demanded 43 — of the total 243 — seats to contest in Bihar Assembly election. This is in the line with the Lok Sabha election formula where the BJP and the JDU contested on an equal number of seats and the rest went to the LJP’s kitty.
The JDU is reportedly pressing for implementing the 2010 formula — 1.4:1 — with the BJP. This means, the JDU lays claim to 140-plus seats and leaving around 100 for the BJP.
With HAM coming to the NDA fold, the JDU is ready to field HAM candidates from its own quota and expects the BJP to accommodate the LJP. This is a very disadvantageous situation for the LJP.
WHAT PASWANS BRING TO TABLE
To send a stronger signal of disapproval, Chirag Paswan held a meeting of the LJP earlier this week when the party said it is preparing to field candidates on 143 seats – against the JDU and HAM nominees.
The BJP does not want the LJP to walk out of the NDA as the party helps it neutralise the perception of being an upper caste-baniya party.
The Narendra Modi government has in the past six years worked very hard to present itself as pro-poor and pro-Dalit. But at the same time, the BJP cannot afford to antagonize Nitish Kumar one more time. Once bitten twice shy.
DIGVIJAYA OFFER AND NEW POSSIBILITIES
In the middle of this internal fight among coalition partners, Digvijaya Singh has gone for the NDA jugular. The RJD without Lalu Prasad hitting the ground, and a Congress with no charisma or organisation left, don’t present a winning coalition on paper even with the help of parties such as the CPI, the RLSP and the VIP.
Theoretically, the LJP can tilt balance in its favour. If Dalit vote bank divides over Paswan-Manjhi fight, the LJP has a better chance of winning. There is another vote bank that may help the Mahagathbandhan – the 17-18 per cent Muslim voters.
Arithmetically, Dalit and Muslims bring together 34-35 per cent vote to any alliance. With the Mahagathbandhan still enjoying substantial support of the Yadavs – who make up around 14 per cent of voters in Bihar, the RJD-Congress-LJP alliance suddenly starts looking formidable against the NDA.
The Dalits and Muslims are among the biggest blocs of migrants from the state, and naturally a large number of them have returned home during coronavirus pandemic.
Many of them have come back with the slogan of Bhim-Meem unity they heard at their work places. The coming together of Dalit-Muslim vote bank may build a new perception for wider electoral audience in Bihar.
But the question is, do Paswans foresee enough benefits to switch sides?
Ram Vilas Paswan has been in on both sides in the past – he was a minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government as well as in the Manmohan Singh’s government. There is an age factor that may push Ram Vilas Paswan to consider Digvijaya Singh’s offer.
He turns 75 next year and faces the prospect of vacating the ministerial berth in the Narendra Modi government. He stands to lose if Chirag Paswan has to be focused on Bihar for a long-term gain. A loss of ministry at the Centre may be good enough inducement for Ram Vilas Paswan.
For Chirag Paswan, if the LJP joins the RJD-Congress bloc, and the coalition wins the election, he may be in contention for deputy chief minister’s post. Along with Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag Paswan can paint his campaign even better on the plank of youthful future of Bihar.