15 key takeaways from Lokniti-CSDS poll in Bihar

Bihar Assembly Elections 2020, the first polls to be held in India after the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic, have gripped the country in a political fever. Set to be held between October 28 and November 7, Bihar polls are set to be a direct battle between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the main opposition alliance mahagathbandhan (MGB). The poll battle and political developments around it have raised several questions. Will the NDA make it back to the office or will RJD swoop in and take the throne? Can Nitish Kumar beat the anti-incumbency or will Chirag Paswan manage to strike gold post-polls? While India might have to wait for answers till the counting day on November 10, the Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Opinion Poll has some predictions. The pre-poll survey, conducted between October 10 and 17, gives a peep into the voters’ minds. Here are 15 key takeaways from the Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Opinion Poll:

1. NDA’S 6% VOTESHARE LEAD OVER MAHAGATHBANDAN (MGB)

The NDA alliance of the BJP, the JDU, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP) commands a six per cent vote-share lead over the principal opposition alliance of the RJD, Congress and left parties, a Lokniti-CSDS poll projects.

The NDA, the poll suggests, will bag 38 per cent of the votes in the forthcoming assembly elections in comparison with the MGB’s projected share of 32 per cent.

Cumulatively, the votes of the parties that make up the NDA are likely to come down about five per cent from the last assembly elections, while the votes of the MGB block are likely to increase by 3.5 per cent.

Despite this trend, the NDA alliance maintains a substantial overall lead when it comes to the alliance-wise vote-share numbers at this stage of the election race.

The prospects of the NDA are helped by the presence of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF), which comprises the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha, Mayawati’s BSP and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.

The GDSF is projected to bag seven per cent of the votes in the state elections, largely because of the anti-incumbency factor. The presence of this third front apparently leads to a higher-than-normal fragmentation of opposition votes.

The NDA is also helped by the fact that Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is playing the role of a vote cutter. The LJP is expected to bag six per cent of the vote.

VOTING INTENTION

Voting intention for Bihar assembly elections between October 10 and 17, 2020

*Source: Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey in Bihar; sample size: 3,731

2. NDA LIKELY TO END UP ABOVE HALFWAY MARK

In an assembly of 243 seats, the magic figure is 122 seats. Lokniti-CSDS projects that the NDA will bag between 133-143 seats and the MGB between 88-98. The LJP is projected to secure between two and six seats.

The polling data and reports from the ground suggest that the BJP’s strike rate is likely to be higher than that of the JDU. LJP candidates are damaging the prospects of the JDU on a significant number of seats, the survey shows.

Even though the GDSF may get seven per cent of the votes but this is unlikely to translate into too many seats.

Seat forecast based on voting intention recorded between October 10 and 17, 2020

3. ONE IN FOUR VOTERS EITHER UNDECIDED OR COULD CHANGE PREFERENCE

One of the biggest X factors of the Bihar elections is that 24 per cent of the voters are either undecided or did not reveal their voting intention or revealed who they planned to vote for but at the same time said they could change their mind on the polling day.

With just one week to go before the first phase of elections, such a high percentage of undecided voters is unusual and is giving sleepless nights to all political parties.

This shows that there is confusion and ambivalence in the minds of a large part of the electorate and what happens between now and the polling day will play a role in determining the final outcome.

But there is a caution around one in ten voters are undecided and around one in seven of those who gave their vote preference said they may change their voting decision by election day

4. NITISH KUMAR’S POPULARITY HAS WANED

The level of satisfaction with Nitish Kumar’s performance has crashed between the last assembly elections and this one.

In 2015, a whopping 80 per cent of the respondents said they were satisfied with Nitish Kumar’s work. Before that, in 2010, 77 per cent said he was doing a good job.

But in this election, only 52 per cent of the respondents have said they are satisfied with the work of the CM. This is a fall of 35 per cent in the satisfaction levels over a five-year period.

Sushasan Babu, as he has been called, no longer has the kind of Teflon image he has enjoyed in the state over the past 15 years.

Voters who said they were dissatisfied with the CM have more than doubled between 2015 and now.

In 2015, 18 per cent of the voters said they were dissatisfied with the Nitish Kumar government. This has now jumped up to 44 per cent.

GOVERNMENT POPULARITY

Voter satisfaction with Nitish Kumar-led JDU-BJP government compared to 2015 and 2010

Note: Figures are percentages.

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Nitish Kumar-led JDU-BJP government in Bihar?

5. MODI STILL SHINES BRIGHT

The level of popularity of the Narendra Modi-led central government is far higher than the popularity of the Nitish Kumar- led state government.

Some 52 per cent voters said that they were satisfied with Nitish Kumar’s performance, while 61 per cent say they are satisfied with the work of the Modi government. There’s a nine per cent gap between the popularity of the state government and that of the central government.

Despite a downturn in the economy and the pandemic, for the PM to have 61 per cent satisfaction levels shows that the Modi magic still runs strong and his bond with the voters of the state of Bihar is unbroken.

However, in comparison with the peak of May 2019, there has been an increase in the number of voters who said that they were dissatisfied with the central government.

Voters’ satisfaction with the Narendra Modi-led NDA government at the centre compared to 2015

Note: Figures are percentages.

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Narendra Modi-led BJP/NDA government at the centre?

6. VOTERS HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF NITISH

For the first time, the number of voters who do not want another term for Nitish Kumar is more than the number of voters who want another term for him.

According to the poll data, only 38 per cent of the respondents want another term for Nitish Kumar, while 43 per cent do not want him to return as CM.

In 2010, there was a 30 per cent gap between those who wanted Nitish Kumar as CM and those who didn’t.

Even in 2015, there was a 10 per cent gap in favour of the current chief minister. But in this election, the number of voters who do not want Nitish Kumar again is five per cent more than those who still want to give another chance to him.

In the last five years, some 14 per cent of the voters have changed their mind on Nitish Kumar. Net-net, Bihar seems to be suffering from a Nitish fatigue and a majority of the voters would like to see a new face at the helm.

Additionally, the number of voters who are ambivalent about Nitish Kumar has gone up.

In 2015, the number of voters who had no response on whether the chief minister should get another chance was in single digits, only six per cent. That number has now jumped up to 19 per cent. Nitish Kumar is clearly no longer as popular as he used to be.

Pro/anti-incumbency sentiment with respect to state government compared to 2015 and 2010 elections

Note: Figures are percentages

7. ANTI-GOVERNMENT VOTE BADLY SPLIT

While those who advocate another term for the state government and going out and voting for the NDA in big numbers (80 per cent), the anti-government vote in Bihar is badly split between the opposition parties. Only 52 per cent of the vote of those who are against the Nitish Kumar government is going into the kitty of the MGB, while 48 per cent of the anti-NDA vote is being split between the LJP, the GDSF and other smaller opposition parties and independents.

This election in Bihar could have looked very different if the opposition parties showed greater unity.

Anti-incumbency vote getting badly split between opposition parties at the moment giving an unpopular NDA government the advantage

Note: Figures are percentages

8. TEJASHWI CATCHING UP WITH NITISH

One of the remarkable findings of the Lokniti-CSDS poll is that Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity is now just four per cent less than the popularity of Nitish Kumar. Three out of 10 voters want Nitish Kumar as CM, while 27 per cent prefer 30-year-old Tejashwi Yadav.

If one was to combine the residual popularity of Lalu Yadav with that of his son, then the gap between the two leaders comes down to only one per cent.

This is significant because Tejashwi Yadav’s detractors dismiss him as a greenhorn while the CSDS poll suggests he is giving the CM a run for his money when it comes to the question of who the people of Bihar want as the state’s next CM.

To a great extent, Tejashwi Yadav seems to have been able to establish himself as the successor of Lalu Yadav at least in the eyes of the voters of the MGB.

First five choices for Chief Minister (October 10-17): Nitish Kumar ahead, Tejashwi Yadav is close behind

Note: Figures are percentages, the rest took other names

Question asked: After the coming election, who would you prefer to see as the next Chief Minister of Bihar?

Lalu family closes gap with Nitish as Nitish’s popularity at its lowest since he came to power

Note: Figures are percentages

Source: CSDS surveys in Bihar at the time of elections

If we add Lalu’s residual popularity (3%) to the popularity of his son Tejashwi (27%) then there is only a one percent gap between Nitish Kumar and the family of Lalu Yadav.

9. MORE BJP VOTERS DON’T WANT NITISH AS CM

The number of BJP voters who want Nitish Kumar as CM has crashed from 91 per cent in 2010 to 55 per cent now.

Ten years ago, nine out of ten BJP voters said they backed Nitish Kumar to be the CM. But in this election, only half of those who identified themselves as BJP voters (55 per cent) say they want him back as chief minister.

This means that Nitish Kumar’s acceptance among BJP voters has dropped by more than one-third (36 per cent). Thirty per cent of BJP voters now want to give some other leader the chance to run Bihar.

Preference for Nitish Kumar as CM has declined amongst BJP voters, but is still substantial

Note: Figures are percentages

A similar finding from another question asked in the survey – those planning to vote for the BJP — were far more likely to want a new leader leading Bihar after elections than those voting for the JDU

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

Question asked: It has been 15 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule in Bihar. Some say that Nitish Kumar has done development and he should get another chance, while some others believe that while Nitish Kumar may well have done development, but after 15 years some other leader should get a chance. What is your opinion?

10. NDA VOTERS MORE IMPRESSED BY MODI GOVERNMENT THAN STATE GOVERNMENT

NDA voters are far more impressed with the work done by the Modi government than they are with the work done by the Nitish Kumar government.

Asked what they would give more importance to, some 27 per cent of NDA voters said they would give more importance to the work done by the Modi government. Only 16 per cent of NDA voters said the work of the Nitish Kumar government was more important in determining their voting decision.

NDA backers more likely to base their vote on Modi government’s work than Nitish government’s work; many LJP voters also voting with Modi in mind

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

Question asked: While deciding who to vote for in the upcoming assembly elections, what will you give most consideration/importance to work done by the Nitish Kumar government, work done by the Narendra Modi government or work done by your MLA?

11. HIGH DISSATISFACTION WITH SITTING MLAS

Around 40 per cent of the overall respondents said they were greatly dissatisfied with their sitting MLA.

The level of dissatisfaction with BJP MLAs (48 per cent) is the highest. The level of dissatisfaction with RJD MLAs is the lowest (34 per cent).

Note: Figures reported for those who are either very happy or very Unhappy with their MLA’s work

Many answered somewhat satisfied or somewhat dis-satisfied.

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the MLA from your area during the last five years?

12. CONGRESS IS MAHAGATHBANDHAN’S WEAK LINK

Congress is the weak link in the MGB. Around 53 per cent of those who identify themselves as traditional Congress voters are either voting for other parties or the NDA but not the MGB.

In comparison, 83 per cent of RJD voters said they would vote for the RJD.

Some 71 per cent of traditional BJP voters said they would vote for the BJP and 70 per cent of JDU voters said they would vote for the JDU.

Congress is the one party which has seen maximum desertion of its vote bank and adds limited value to the MGB.

In the MGB, Congress seems to be pulling it down as its old supporters are not contributing well to the alliance

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

13. BIHAR MANGE VIKAS BA

Development is the number one issue for maximum voters in Bihar, with 29 per cent mentioning “vikas” as their main concern.

The number of voters worried about jobs has more than doubled, from nine per cent in 2015 to 20 per cent in 2020.

Unemployment is the second most important issue in this election. Concern over inflation has come down.

In 2015, 16 per cent voters highlighted inflation as their top concern, this is now down to 11 per cent.

VOTING ISSUES

Top five voting issues: development continues to be main issue; unemployment emerges as second most important concern

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

Question asked: What will be the most important issue for you while voting in the upcoming assembly elections?

Inflation and unemployment

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

14. WOMEN VOTERS PREFER NITISH GOVERNMENT

The Nitish Kumar-led alliance is more popular among women voters than it is among male voters. Some 41 per cent of the women voters suggested that they would vote for the NDA, while 36 per cent of the men said they would vote for the NDA.

GENDER AND EDUCATION

Women seem to be keeping the NDA afloat as the Nitish Kumar-led alliance has a significant gender advantage at the moment

Note: Figures are percentages and may not total 100 due to rounding.

15. TIGHT FIGHT AMONG THE MOST EDUCATED VOTERS

Surprisingly, the gap between those voting for the NDA and the MGB is the smallest among the most educated section of voters. Some 29 per cent of those who held graduation degrees said they would vote for the MGB, while 31 per cent said they would vote for the NDA.

The difference between the two alliances amongst graduates and above is only two percent. The gap between the two alliances in the category of voters with lesser educational qualification is much higher in favour of the NDA.

Unexpectedly, well-educated MGB voters seem to be giving the NDA a tough fight

Note: Figures are percentages.