The monsoon alternated between weak and strong phases in the last several decades. It has been in a weak phase since the 1970s but rainfall surged 10% above normal last year and is 9% in excess this year, making them the best monsoon years in a quarter of a century.
“For a long time, we did not have this type of situation, where it is close to 110% in consecutive years,” Sivananda Pai, head of long-range forecasting at the India Meteorological Department told ET. “Starting from 70s, up to now, we were passing through a below-normal epoch. It looks like now it may be changing,” he said.
Calling this year’s precipitation a “turning point,” Pai said that such processes take years to monitor before anything can officially be declared. “We have to see for a few more years whether we are entering into a new phase,” he said.
Other scientists agreed. “Although meteorology is not an exact science, to put it simply, the Earth’s relative position with the Sun keeps changing over time. That might explain this shift,” said Laxman Singh Rathore, former IMD director-general. Rathore said that recorded history has shown a cyclical strong and weak phase of the monsoon spread over two to three decades.
Monsoon rain this year has been above normal for three of the four months, with only July ending with a 10% deficit.
This will cheer policymakers, farmers and manufacturers as good monsoon rainfall boosts demand for consumer goods, gold, cars, motorcycles, tractors, farm equipment and inputs such as pesticides, fertilisers, and seeds.