Even as concerted efforts from both sides gradually take the edge off the tension at Ladakh, local industry finds itself in considerable dilemma over what happens if/when India actually severs decades-old business linkages with its trans-Himalayan neighbour.
In an interview today, senior economy commentator Swaminathan Aiyar put the vexing issue in perspective. Rejecting the popular notion that the China story could be over for India, Aiyar highlighted the dangers of plunging headlong into an import ban. China must be sent a stern message but not in this manner, he insisted.
There is a need to draw a clear line between goods that can be banned and the ones that can’t be, he said.
There is not much downside to banning Chinese apps, kites, candles, clocks or toys, Aiyar explained, because such a move will not increase consumer prices in India owing to the fact that India have other options available at roughly similar price points. But if India goes and bans stuff like Chinese machinery or intermediate goods, it will hurt the Indian economy deeply because no other nation can provide India the same stuff at the cost that China does, he cautioned.
The bottomline of the argument is that while banning apps or toys won’t turn India into a high-cost economy, a ban on machinery or intermediate goods will, to the great detriment of India’s interests.
If India goes ahead with a ban on such goods, it will then lose out to other countries that continue with Chinese imports, Aiyar reasoned. He cites the example of ASEAN nations to make his point clear: These nations have a long history of bitterness with China but they have never banned Chinese goods. If India goes for a ban, it will simply lose competitiveness, he said.
Put checks and balances on finished or consumer goods by all means, but don’t touch capital goods or intermediate ones — is how he summed up the situation.
It is okay for the Swadeshi Jagran Manch to push individual consumers to boycott Chinese goods, but at the state level India must not delink from China, especially in case of cap goods or technology, Aiyar said.
Talking of Sajjan Jindal’s insistence on not importing stuff from China anymore, Aiyar said grandstanding was fine so far as it did not raise the cost of operations.
So if you want to do that kind of grandstanding and it makes you feel good without becoming high cost, it is just fine, he said.
Putting in safeguards is better than altogether banning Chinese electrical equipment, an area where China supplies goods very cheap; the same goes for solar panels and battery storage, and so it is not possible for India to go big on solar without Chinese imports, he explained.
Aiyar underlined the need to be careful in certain areas such as defence, but he also insisted that India and China are inseparable in many areas of trade and economics. The point is to not overdo it and to always have a calibrated response so that one does not go over the top, he said.
There are other countries which have just as much grievance against China as we have, but they are not going over the top. Neither should we, Aiyar cautioned.