“In Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for about 30% of India’s wheat production, the eastern part is expected to have relatively good yields on-year because of timely sowing after harvest of kharif paddy. On the other hand, western UP could see a marginal decline due to late sowing — majorly in the sugarcane belt — if high temperatures persist in March,” said CRISIL.
In Punjab and Haryana, which together accounts for about 25% of India’s wheat production, late-sown wheat is in the flowering stage, while the early sown lot is in the milking stage. High temperatures are detrimental to grain formation in both these stages.
Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, which accounts for 20% of India’s wheat production, late-sown wheat is at the milking stage.
“But Bihar, contributing 5% of India’s wheat production, saw early sowing and the crop there is at the grain formation/maturation stage. Therefore, it could be impacted relatively less,” said CRISIL.
It added: “Though such abiotic factors cannot be managed very effectively, farmers in Punjab, Haryana and western UP are said to have initiated spraying of crop nutrients such as bio-stimulants and specialty fertilisers, which should help them cope with the heat wave to some extent.”
Wheat prices have been on a downward trend in the past 20 days. However, according to CRISIL, if these high temperatures persist for the next 20 days, there could be a turnaround in prices.