“The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rose to a record high of 99.4 for the week ended August 8, from 94.0 last week, near the pre-pandemic level (100), and surpassing the pre-second wave peak (of 99.3 in mid-Feb). This suggests that the swifter-than-expected recovery from the second wave slump has continued in early August,” Nomura said in its weekly report, adding that the index regained “its mojo after fatigue in the past two weeks”.
As per the report, after briefly plateauing, mobility picked up sharply, with Google workplace, retail & recreation and Apple driving index rising by 7.4 percentage points (pp), 5.3 pp and 6.7 pp, respectively.
Power demand also rose 5.3% week-on-week after contracting for three consecutive weeks, while the labour participation rate rose to 41.5% from 39.8% previously, pushing up the unemployment rate to 8.1%, it said.
While the Covid-19 cases remain flat at around 40,000 per day, and at close to 5 million doses per day, the vaccination pace is higher than the daily rate of 3.9 million in June, Nomura highlighted state-wide divergences on the seroprevalence rate, infection cases, vaccinations and the lockdown situation.
“Some states are doubling down on restrictions (like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu), while others like Maharashtra are easing further,” it said.
Overall, the latest rise in the NIBRI corrects its plateauing since mid-July, and suggests the swifter-than-expected recovery from the second wave slump has continued in early August.
“Whether the surge in mobility, in turn, triggers a third wave is a key risk that we continue to monitor,” Nomura said.
India reported 35,499 cases in the last 24 hours.