Construction of one of Russia’s key natural gas projects in Siberia to supply gas to China is likely to be slower than expected, they said, adding that discussions between the two sides over the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline have progressed slowly.
The pipeline, if completed, would supply 50 billion cubic metres (1.8 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas per year to China. The new pipeline is needed, according to China’s assessment, because the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline is limited to 67 billion cubic metres per year.
However, China is bargaining hard with Russia, which is facing western sanctions. It wants Russia to foot the entire bill for the pipeline. Amid the harsh winter China’s annual natural gas consumption is estimated to have increased 5.5-7% year-on-year in 2023.
But it is not just the Siberian gas pipeline. China is also trying to take advantage in the Arctic Ocean amid deteriorating ties between Russia and the West, but Russia wants global investment in the Arctic region and not just Chinese investments, said the people cited earlier.
“During the Cold War, the Arctic offered the shortest flight paths for intercontinental missiles and nuclear-armed bombers between the then Soviet Union and the NATO allies,” said a report in the South China Morning Post. “Now the rapid shrinking of the region’s ice caps is also offering new sea lanes and access to precious resources, fuelling concerns that the Arctic could emerge as one of the most strategically valuable maritime routes in the world.”Besides, China – which has been expanding its economic, scientific, cultural and diplomatic engagement with several Arctic countries in recent years – is facing a growing risk of being caught in the crossfire, said observers.The Russia-controlled North Sea Route (NSR) could become ice-free in 2035, according to some predictions, cutting shipping times by 30-40% compared with the Suez Canal. India has already been using NSR for certain energy shipments. Ice-free NSR would allow the Russian navy to travel freely between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Meanwhile, resource-rich Mongolia, a neighbour of both Russia and China, is planning seven new dry ports to expand trade with both the countries, but remains wary of overdependence on China. Mongolia relies on China for numerous investments, while China sees Mongolia as a connector for trade with Central Asia.