Can BJP pull off a repeat performance in Uttar Pradesh? Here is what the odds look like

The stage has been set for the high-stake 2022 electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh. The Election Commission on Saturday announced a 7-phase poll schedule for the state with voting for first phase on February 10 and the last phase on March 7. The results will be out on March 10.

The 2022 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be a litmus test for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it goes all out to not just retain power in the state but also match its historic 2017 performance.

How important Uttar Pradesh is for the BJP in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be gauged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited the state 10 times in the last two months. PM Modi, along with chief minister Yogi Adityanath, has inaugurated numerous projects in the state, including important expressways.

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The Uttar Pradesh chief minister has gone all out to woo the voters of the state as he leads the BJP campaign from the front in the high-stakes election.

In 2017 elections, the BJP had scripted a historic victory in the state – winning 312 assembly seats with a vote share of nearly 40 per cent.

This was the BJP’s best performance in Uttar Pradesh since it got into the electoral fray in the state in 1980.

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The party not just won the maximum number of seats, it also registered its best-ever vote share and the best strike rate in the state.

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The hallmark of the 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh was the number of seats the BJP gained and also the huge loss of seats for the Samajwadi Party, which was ruling the state from 2012.

While the BJP gained 272 seats, the Samajwadi Party lost 188 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress were the other major losers in the electoral battle of 2017.

Here’s a look at how the assembly seats were flipped in 2017.

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The 2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh had put the BJP on the top in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won over 60 Lok Sabha seats in the state helping the party secure a huge victory in the 2019 national elections.

Now, as the party gears up to match its performance in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, it is aware of the likely impact that the results of these polls could have on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.