Help us understand this move that we have been seeing in the FMCG pack over the last couple of trading weeks if you could call it and it makes up 10% of the Nifty so going ahead in FY25 are you expecting any change in the moves that we are going to be seeing on the FMCG basket, any factors such as the rural demand recovery or summers are here so maybe electricals could be doing better but are you pencilling in any major growth when it comes to the FMCG pack for FY25.
I think FMCG basket or FMCG index, Nifty FMCG is trading at important support right now which is 54,000. Last time also FMCG basket had taken resistance at 54,000 so polarity comes into picture and over here a lot of FMCG counters look very good.
Risk-reward is pretty favourable and if you look at market leaders like Col-Pal they are trading at 52-week highs, so they are already setting the trajectory for other FMCG peers to follow.
I think other counters are also trading at important support like Marico is trading at important support, Hindustan Unilever also saw a good spike today and Nestle was also up 2% to 3%.
I think from here the risk-reward is pretty good and there is upside of 5% to 10% in these FMCG names and the downside is restricted, upside is good enough from here.
What is, of course, I am sure on the minds of every trader and investor is now what about April month seasonality, what we have seen historical trend that 6 out of 10 times April month has played out very well, in fact 10-year average we have seen Nifty performing 2%, midcap and smallcap performing around about 4-4.5%. Now give us a sense of what kind of rollovers, I am sure the data will come in by the evening, but then what kind of rollover data do you see from sectors and historical data also suggests that metal and pharma can be the biggest gains, where should actually a trader eye on?
The data is pretty encouraging. Bank Nifty has seen stellar move of 400 to 500 points, although that cooled off initially, but still there is a lot of steam left over there.As Ajay ji was also saying that China could rebound strongly so that would help the metal sector and DXY has been continuously going down. Today also important data is about to be released in the USA. So, the data is expected to be a little bit dovish in nature as it could be good for risky assets, it may trigger a risk on rally.Already, we are seeing that all the global markets are trading at 52-week highs. Nikkei is trading at 52-week high although we saw very good depreciation in Yen but still Nikkei is trading at 52-week high, S&P is trading at 52-week high,Dow Jones is trading at a 52-week high and even if China supports then it could be all engines firing at the same time and that could trigger a great rally in the metal sector.
So, I think the metal sector really looks like the top bet. The charts of all the metal counters are also looking quite good. Hindalco saw very good recovery. Jindal Steel also saw good recovery. All the metal counters have rebounded quite sharply in the last one to two weeks.
Also, I would like to state a disclaimer that we have been suggesting metal counters to our clients, so one must consult their financial advisor before taking the decision. But overall, I am very positive on the market. I see 23,000 to 23,500 on Nifty and I see 49,000 to 50,000 on Bank Nifty.
Let us talk about a sector we have not addressed so far and that is the realty space. Top gainer when it comes to FY24, 133% uptick coming in on that sector. But even when you look at it on an intraday basis or a weekly basis, you have players, well positioned market players in this pack, the likes of Sobha, Prestige, Macrotech. There is no stopping when it comes to these stocks. Do you think there are more legs left to this realty rally even in FY25? Could you share some levels that you are spotting?
The environment is pretty good for all the industries which are capital intensive in nature and tilted towards infrastructure. Whether you talk about realty or you talk about cement which is the raw material for infra, you talk about metals, everything is buzzing and even if you look at Dow Jones which is an index of traditional businesses is actually outperforming the new-age business, Nasdaq.
So, I think there is a new life in traditional business and infrastructure oriented businesses and a recent commentary from Lodha also says that the sector is very buzzing and there are long legs of rally over there.
Technically also, if I talk about DLF which has the highest market cap, it is actually reclaiming its past glory. In 2008, the stock made a high of 1215. Now it is trading at 900. So, I think it has surpassed its important resistance level, so it is coming back to life and all the newly listed counters, the new players like Oberoi, Prestige, all are making a 52-week high. I think there are long legs of rally over there. I see an upside of almost 5% to 15% over there. And if we talk about the Nifty Realty Index, then it is trading at 900.65. I think from here, we can see levels of almost 1000 to 1100 over here. So, the sector looks pretty positive.
Broader market was one such space which made money for both the traders, bears as well as bull traders. From the peak of pessimism, we have already seen a good rebound in smallcap and midcap. But then what lies ahead now? Would you recommend some stocks from this space which can also do well in April?
If we talk about the overall market, then I would like to go with Reliance Industries, which is actually lifting the market higher. I think Reliance Industries could be bought at this price of 2971.70, stop loss must be maintained at 2887 and target is 3100 to 3200.
Second one I like is from the pharma space, Ipca Laboratories. This one looks good. There is a fresh breakout on the charts. So, Ipca Labs could be bought at 1237, stop loss is 1180 and target is 1330. And the third one would be Indus Tower, that looks good at 291, stop loss must be 268 and target is 320 to 330.