Stimulus package deal by mid-week? Update on negotiations including a second check

White House and Democratic negotiators were already running out of time to complete a deal on another economic relief package before Election Day even before President Donald Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19. However, there could be agreement on the outlines of a new stimulus package as soon as mid-week, The Washington Post reported.

The passage of a bipartisan stimulus bill has received greater urging from the president. “Our great USA wants & needs stimulus,” Trump’s account tweeted Saturday. “Work together and get it done. Thank you!”

House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue to negotiate, but the GOP-controlled Senate must approve a bill before it can be signed into law. 

“We’re making progress,” Pelosi said Sunday on Face The Nation. “It just depends on if they understand what we have to do to crush the virus.” This new stimulus package under discussion differs from the proposal passed by the House of Representatives on Oct. 1.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has suspended his chamber until Oct. 19 after three Republican senators tested positive for COVID-19. However, since Senate floor votes are held in person, he said he would recall senators to vote on a stimulus package if need be, giving them 24 hours to return to the capital.

In light of Trump’s hospitalization, we’ve detailed some possible outcomes of these negotiations. We regularly update this story. 

Read more: The most important things to know about stimulus checks and how taxes and stimulus checks are like two peas in a pod.

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Next stimulus checks: What to expect

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What effect does Trump’s hospitalization have on stimulus bill negotiations?

For now, that’s uncertain, apart from Trump’s Saturday tweet underscoring his desire to sign a new stimulus package into law. Trump may be released as soon as Monday, his medical team said Sunday. 

Although she remained circumspect Sunday, Pelosi has highlighted the way Trump’s COVID diagnosis and treatment could shift the dynamics of a new coronavirus relief package.

“Maybe this will be the moment where people will say, OK, masks, sanitation, treatment,” Pelosi said Friday morning, before the president was hospitalized. “It might be a learning experience.” Pelosi and Mnuchin have both tested negative for COVID-19. 

Prior to Trump’s hospitalization, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seemed cautiously optimistic the two sides are working toward middle ground. “I think we’re closer to getting an outcome,” he said Oct. 2.  

Pelosi ended the previous week with a letter to House Democrats outlining the remaining areas of disagreement.

When’s the fastest a new coronavirus relief bill could pass now? 

With the House scheduled to break following its session Oct. 2 and the Senate now on hold, negotiators are running out of time to reach an agreement on another stimulus package before election day. If negotiations continue, the last day a new bill could pass is up in the air, since the schedules to break can be extended by the leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives.

If the two sides do reach an agreement, it could take a week or more before it comes up for a vote, Politico said.

As we get closer to Nov. 3, the time grows short for Congress to agree on a bill and and then for Trump to sign it for checks to arrive before Election day.

Didn’t the House just pass a new bill? What’s going on there?

Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that includes a second stimulus check and additional benefits like enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans.

The new partisan House bill has little chance of advancing through the Republican-controlled Senate.

According to Pelosi, the vote on the revised Heroes bill is independent of ongoing negotiations with Mnuchin. If Pelosi and Mnuchin agree on a new proposal, a new bill would need to be separately drafted and voted on in both the House and Senate before being signed into law. The total cost of the package and funding allocations like a child tax credit have remained chief sticking points.

Why did the House vote on Heroes 2.0 if talks are underway?

The partisan vote is thought to provide cover for House Democrats as they campaign without a new relief bill, much as the Senate did earlier this month for Republican members with its $650 billion skinny bill. Like the skinny Senate bill, this new House proposal has little chance of advancing in the other chamber.

What do Democrats and Republicans agree on?

Proposals from both sides include another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements, among topics like aid for airlines, coronavirus testing and extending the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses.

If negotiations fail, could the president seek executive action?

After talks originally collapsed on Aug. 7, Trump signed one executive order and three memoranda the following day. It’s possible more executive actions could be forthcoming if this final attempt at negotiations fails before the election, though there’s been no development after Trump first suggested his administration might consider another executive action to bypass Congress. 

With his medical condition still under review, it’s unclear if Trump would pursue unilateral action at this point.

Trump’s current COVID-19 relief executive actions address slowing evictions, extending unemployment benefits to a lesser degree and deferring payroll taxes until next year.

Could talks resume again after election results are in?

Yes. If this current sprint of talks dead-ends, leaders may want to see what happens in the period after the election on Nov. 3 and before the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. Pelosi and congressional Democrats may also believe they can reach a more favorable deal in 2021, depending on the results of the election.

With 470 seats in the US Congress — 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats — up for a vote in November, any change in majority to the House or Senate, and to the presidency, shifts the likelihood of certain laws being passed one way or another.

What about passing narrow, standalone bills instead?

If the two sides do reach an agreement but the Senate rejects the new bill, some in Washington say the way to break the stalemate is to pass a series of even narrower bills that target specific areas — such as the entertainment and airline industries — but that’s unlikely to happen before the election.

Senate Republicans made one attempt with its Delivering Immediate Relief to America’s Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act, but that proposal failed in the Senate. The House also presented a piecemeal bill seeking to provide funding to the US Postal Service ahead of an election in which many Americans, wary of in-person voting during a pandemic, will likely be voting by mail. 

What happens now?

For now, there’s nothing to do but wait and see how Trump’s recovery progresses and how the ongoing negotiation efforts play out. 

For more information, here’s how soon you might get your second stimulus check and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.