India reached coronavirus peak in late September, crisis likely to end by February end: Govt-appointed panel

With no lockdown, the coronavirus pandemic would have hit India very hard with a peak load of more than 1.40 crore cases arriving in June, professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad has pointed out after conducting a study on ‘Progression of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts’.

“Given our lack of preparedness back then, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed, leading to many additional deaths,” Vidyasagar said.

A government-appointed committee chaired by Vidyasagar found that had India waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakh by June.

The peak of active coronavirus cases came in late September at around 10 lakh, and by this time, India was far better equipped to handle the pandemic in terms of diagnostics and vital equipment inventories. “Therefore, the imposition of an early and comprehensive lockdown pushed the peak of cases far into the future and also reduced the peak load on the system. In short, the lockdown “flattened the curve”, the committee said.

A man puts a mask on a boy in Bikaner. (Photo for representation: PTI)

The downward trend will continue only if we continue with practices of masking, disinfecting, tracing, and quarantine, according to the study.

It has also claimed that if all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end. Relaxation in protective measures can lead to a significant rise of up to 26 lakh infections within a month, it added.

ON LABOUR MIGRATION, FRESH LOCKDOWNS

The committee said that the impact of labour migration on the total number of infections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh was minimal. This indicates the success of quarantine strategies adopted for the returning migrants, it said.

“No fresh lockdowns should be imposed on district or state level to contain the spread of Covid-19 unless there is an imminent danger of healthcare facilities being overwhelmed,” according to the committee.

Professor Manindra Agrawal (IIT Kanpur), Lieutenant General Madhuri Kanitkar (HQ IDS — MoD), professor Biman Bagchi (IISc), professor Arup Bose (ISI Kolkata), professor Gagandeep Kang (CMC Vellore) and professor Sankar K Pal (ISI Kolkata) are members of the committee set up to collate the collective expertise of the Indian scientific community, and to arrive at a ‘Covid-19 India National Supermodel’.

ON UPCOMING FESTIVALS, WINTER SEASONS

The committee including professors from IITs and IISc besides scientists, also said that upcoming festivals and winter seasons may increase the susceptibility to the infection, but all activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols are followed.

PTI18 10 2020 000079A

An idol of Goddess Durga at a coronavirus theme-based puja pandal in West Bengal on Sunday. (Photo: PTI)

“Avoiding congestion, especially in closed spaces and special care of those above 65 years and children is even more significant. Personnel with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious,” it added.

According to the study, India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10 per cent of the world’s deaths, and its case fatality rate of less than 2 per cent is among the lowest in the world. Hence, all activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols continue to be followed, it said.

India reported 61,871 fresh coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, taking the country’s tally to 74,94,552, the Union health ministry said on Sunday. The number of deaths due to the coronavirus also increased by 1,033, to 1,14,031, according to the latest health bulletin. Meanwhile, the total active cases in India stands at 7,83,311, and the total cured or discharged or migrated cases are at 65,97,210.

(With inputs from Ashish Pandey)



Source link

Leave a comment