Covid-19: India’s daily caseload nears China’s grand total

India reported nearly 84,000 fresh cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours ending on Thursday 8 am. This is the second consecutive day when India reported more than 80,000 cases in a day. In the past one week, India has reached its peak daily Covid-19 figures on four days.

India has been reporting the highest caseloads for Covid-19 since August in the world. The near-84,000 figure is close to the grand Covid-19 case tally of China, where the coronavirus pandemic outbreak took place.

China has till date reported 85,077 confirmed cases of Covid-19. What is worrying for India is that its daily caseloads are increasing and may surpass the Chinese grand total on any of the days over the next one week.

Except Mondays, the general trend for fresh 24-hour caseload in India has been northward for several weeks and more noticeable in August, when India became the biggest global hotspot of the coronavirus pandemic.

India’s confirmed Covid-19 cases more than doubled since the beginning of August – from 17.5 lakh to over 38.5 lakh. Testing too has more than doubled during the period – from 2 crore to over 4.5 crore.

China and India — particularly in the initial phase — went for similar kind of lockdowns to contain the spread of Covid-19. But when China went for lockdown, India was yet to report its first case of Covid-19. And, by the time China got in the position to unlock in the second half of March, India was preparing itself for coronavirus lockdown.

However, while complete lockdown in China saw the pandemic being brought under control, in India the same measures happened to just delay the arrival of its peak. India is now the single-biggest source of Covid-19 cases.

China has reported 85,077 Covid-19 cases since the beginning of the outbreak of the pandemic. China’s daily case has remained in two digits on most of the days since late March.

India Covid 19

India has seen Covid-19 cases consistently rising since late March.

The good news is that the number of recovered has increased from 11.4 lakh to 29.7 lakh since August 1. But this falls much in the line with the general trend in a pandemic. Recovery rate improves, as a matter of norm, with the progress of the pandemic along time scale.

What is actually worrying for India is the consistent rise in the number of active cases, which have increased from 5.67 lakh to 8.15 lakh. This shows that flattening of the Covid-19 curve may still be weeks if not months away. Testing needs to expand, horizontally and vertically. But what is being seen is that many hotspot states may have already reached their ceiling capacity in testing.

Tamil Nadu’s case is curious.

The Covid-19 dashboard of the government shows that for almost the entire month of August, Tamil Nadu reported a consistent number of fresh Covid-19 cases near 6,000-mark. On the graph, the daily caseload figures appear as boys of the same height standing in one row.

Tamil Nadu Covid 19

Tamil Nadu has reported a consistent figure of around 6,000 cases of Covid-19 on daily basis through August.

Demographically, youth make up the bulk of Covid-19 cases in India. The health ministry figures show that people aged 18-44 have 54 per cent caseload share. Of these cases, 14 per cent of the patients have been in the age-group of 18-25. Of all, eight per cent patients have been aged below 17.

Covid-19 fatalities have been highest among the senior citizens — 60 and above — making 51 per cent of all recorded deaths due to coronavirus infection. Two per cent of all Covid-19 deaths have happened among people below 25 years of age.



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