Wait for more signals before turning positive

At the recent low of 12514 points, the Sensex has tested the 12800-12000-pts support zone and has since then attempted a corrective rally. During the past trend phases in the Sensex, a monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) cross-down below its trigger line, have, typically, led to a significant value erosion, with the corrective phase lasting, at least, for a year.
Therefore, immediate rallies would be interpreted as corrective in nature until the medium-term technical parameters turn positive. The recent upmove in the Sensex since the low of 12514 pts has been very sharp. The upside gap of July 23, 2008 had created a bullish ���Island Reversal Gap��� on the daily charts between 14510 pts and 14519 pts.

Normally, the implications of this on the medium-term outlook would be very positive, especially since the ���Island��� comprised of 22 trading sessions. When a stock indicates an uptrend, trades above the gap which occurs, then gaps back down and trades below the initial price, an island reversal has occurred.

However, the Sensex has since run into a strong resistance zone between 15026 pts and 15390 pts. The monthly mid-point of June 2008 is at 15026 pts. The 50% retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak (17735 pts) is at 15124 pts. The positive implications of the bullish ���Island Reversal Gap��� would thus get negated if the Sensex has a daily close below 14104 pts (the close on July 22, 2008). The Sensex is then expected to have an initial downside of 13513 pts, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from 12514 pts to 15130 pts.

If the bearish ���Island reversal gap��� of 14484-14568 pts is immediately filled and the Sensex manages to decisively overhaul the resistances between 15130 pts and 15390 pts, the ongoing upmove would continue. The Sensex may then test higher levels between 16618 pts and 16860 pts.

The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak is at 16618 pts while 16860 pts is the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from the January 2008 peak. Hence, one would await further confirmation before turning positive on the medium-term outlook.

(The author is VP of technical research at Darashaw)

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