Synopsis
Macroeconomic textbooks are replete with examples. We saw this play out between President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve, and former finance minister P Chidambaram and Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Yes, on rare occasions, as during the 2008 crisis and during 2020, when pandemic-induced restrictions virtually brought economic activity to a standstill, both do work together.
Forecasting is quintessentially an exercise in hubris. The pandemic has brought that home to us in abundant measure. Alas, hubris is also quintessentially human. In the mid-1960s, Nobel-winning economist Paul Samuelson had quipped, ‘The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.’But the best of us, including multinationals like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), succumb. In January 2020, even as reports of a strange and highly
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