Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has said that Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin Yojana cash benefit scheme was a gamechanger for the Bhartiya Janta Party and was key to their landslide victory in the recently concluded elections in the state.
Wood said the unexpected success of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Maharashtra assembly elections was largely attributed to a highly successful monetary assistance program aimed at women, contingent on their income levels.
He noted that the government’s focus on targeting women voters and implementing policies centered around women has been a consistent strategy under Narendra Modi’s leadership.
He said ‘Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections was a surprise outcome that was mostly made possible due to an extremely popular cash handout scheme for women, subject to income levels’. Targeting women voters and adopting women-centric policies has been an ongoing feature of Narendra Modi’s government, he said.
“There is no doubt that the BJP victory was a surprise since when GREED & fear attended Jefferies’ India conference in September everybody was expecting the BJP to lose. The growing success of such handout programs in state elections does raise the risk of a wave of populism. Still the rise of such populist policies should still be seen in the context of a central government which is still spending more on capex than welfare,” Wood wrote in his recent weekly note to investors, GREED & Fear.
In his column, Wood mentioned that the Indian stock market may be reaching its lowest point following a significant decline over the past few weeks. He pointed out that the decrease in funding pressures is a positive sign, as deposits and loans are now growing at equal rates, which indicates a reduction in liquidity constraints.
“There is a reasonable possibility that the Indian stock market is bottoming out after a correction, which has been primarily in the more expensive mid-cap stocks. A positive, as regards the private banks, is that liquidity pressures have reduced with deposits and loans now growing atthe same rate showing a decline in funding pressures,” Wood wrote in his recent weekly note to investors, GREED & fear.
Ladki Bahin Yojana
The Ladki Bahin cash benefit scheme in Maharashtra, widely known, provides a monthly stipend of Rs 1,500 to women aged 21 to 65 with a family income below Rs 2,50,000 annually. Launched in July 2024, the Ladki Bahin Yojana extends the monthly allowance to women aged 18 to 65 experiencing financial difficulties.
The primary goal of the Ladki Bahin Yojana is to eliminate financial obstacles that hinder girls from pursuing their education further. This program provides direct financial assistance to girls, with the aim of motivating them to successfully complete their schooling and continue on to higher studies.
Besides the monthly stipend of Rs 1,500, three complimentary LPG cylinders annually, along with added perks like skill enhancement workshops, healthcare programs, and support for financial services are also given.
During the period from July to October, the government successfully provided Rs 7,500 to each beneficiary, resulting in 2.4 crore women benefiting from the scheme.
The surge in popularity of the programme led the Mahayuti alliance to commit to raising it to Rs 2,100 in their manifesto. Nonetheless, officials are currently apprehensive about its financial sustainability. The initiative has been instrumental in engaging female voters, as demonstrated by the decreasing gender disparity in voter participation, decreased from 3.51 percent in 2019 to 1.62 percent in 2024.
In the recently concluded Maharashtra Assembly polls, the BJP fielded 149 candidates and emerged victorious in 132 constituencies. Its allies, Shiv Sena and NCP, secured 57 and 41 seats, respectively. The final voter turnout was recorded at 66.05%, a significant increase from the 61.1% turnout in 2019. According to Election Commission data, this rise in overall voter participation is mainly attributed to the active participation of women voters.
Specifically, women voter turnout saw a substantial increase from 59.26% in the previous Assembly polls to 65.21% in the latest elections, marking a rise of 5.95 percentage points. The data reveals that while 2,53,90,647 women cast their votes in 2019, the number surged to 3,06,49,318 women voters in the recent polls, indicating an increase of 52,58,671 participants.
Impact of Ladli Bahin Yojana
Not only did the ruling party, but even opposition leaders recognized the significant impact of the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana and the increased participation of women voters. In his initial response to the election results, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde attributed the landslide victory to the women voters and the Ladki Bahin Yojana. During a press conference, Shinde expressed his gratitude to all the women voters and male supporters who contributed to their success. He stated that the high voter turnout was a clear indication of the positive reception of their efforts.
Shinde described this program as a “major gamechanger” in the state elections. Additionally, NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar suggested that the Ladki Bahin scheme, the significant turnout of women voters, and religious polarization might have influenced Mahayuti’s success in the Maharashtra assembly polls.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA secured only 17 out of 48 seats, as opposed to 41 seats won in 2019. Conversely, the INDIA bloc captured 30 seats.
It is interesting to note that the voting percentage for the MVA and the Mahayuti was very close in the previous elections, with figures of 43.9 percent and 43.5 percent respectively.
A comparison of the two election results indicates that the Mahayuti coalition has managed to reverse its losses in Vidarbha and rural areas.