The brokerage firm is of the view that around 40 per cent of the country’s population could be fully vaccinated—both doses of vaccines—by November and the number could go up to 60 per cent by January 2022. Currently, the World Health organization defines herd immunity from Covid-19 at 60-70 per cent of the population.
The brokerage said by the end of the current financial year, nearly 80 per cent of Indians will have received both jabs of Covid-19 vaccines.
“India’s teething troubles of vaccination coverage are likely to persist over the next month, owing to raw material scarcity for domestic manufacture,” the report said. YES Securities warned that severe shortages can dent vaccination drive with 7.5 crore of the population to be prioritized for the second dose, “putting the first dose to halt and derailing the future vaccination run-rate”.
Currently, India is vaccinating around 2.5-3.0 million individuals daily, a rate that is considered by many to be too slow for a population of more than 1 billion. In addition to that, Indian vaccine manufacturers are bogged down by capacity constraints that have been compounded by shortage of raw materials.
“Vaccine production should ramp up, June onwards, given that manufacturers are boosting capacities and the US government is likely to ease export restrictions on vaccines and raw materials following the vaccination of significant native populace, over the next 45 days,” YES Securities said.
While the brokerage firm said it remained positive on domestic equities, it did not rule out the possibility of a 4-6 per cent correction in the market “on fears of impact on economic recovery, damage to small businesses and postponement of consumption”.
“However, indices should swiftly recover back as well once the case curve peaks. We read that this wave should peak between April-May 2021. This is needed for stability to return to equities,” the brokerage firm said.