Economic Survey 2022-23: A medium-term plan
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With global agencies pegging India as a ‘shining star’ amid global turmoil, the Economic Survey presented in Parliament on Tuesday looks ahead to the medium term while concluding that the pandemic response and recovery phase is now over.

1. Survey sees economy growing a tad slower

  • GDP growth seen in a 6.1-6.8% range with a 6.5% base case

2. …but set to regain the status of fastest growing major economy as the world slows sharply


“The Economic Survey presents a comprehensive analysis of India’s growth trajectory including the global optimism towards our nation, focus on infra, growth in agriculture, industries and emphasis on futuristic sectors”

— PM Narendra Modi

3. Multiple drivers supporting 6.5% growth and lifting medium-term potential to 7-8%

  • Rebound in private consumption, buoyant services
  • Increase in capacity utilisation
  • Healthy corporate, bank balance sheets
  • Slowing inflation, recovery in credit cycle
  • Recovery in private sector investment
  • Limited risk from China’s Covid surge; normalising supply chains
  • Cessation of monetary tightening leading to return of capital flows

“#EconomicSurvey2023 reaffirms that a seasoned captain PM @narendramodi has smoothly navigated the economy through the rocky waters of the pandemic. When the world is suffering a slowdown, growth and optimism in all sectors show that India is set to emerge as a global superpower”

— Amit Shah

4. Some immediate risks

  • Recession in advanced economies
  • Ongoing monetary tightening in developed markets
  • Still higher -than-normal commodity prices and slowing exports
  • Currency may weaken if current account deficit widens
  • Weakness in markets, uncertain monsoon

5. Policy Prescription

  • Continue with fiscal prudence
  • Check on current account deficit
  • Continue vigil on inflation
  • Aggressive monetisation and privatisation
  • A critical minerals policy Incentivise states for reforms
  • Dismantle LIC – Licensing, Inspection & Compliance
  • Education and skilling to match industry requirements

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