When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Super Bowl LV this weekend, one strategist will be watching for an interesting development off the field.
According to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, history points to better outcomes for the market should one team win over the other. He explained the coincidental correlation to CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
“It’s called the Super Bowl indicator,” Detrick said on Wednesday. “It’s a fun one. We do not invest in this, let’s be very clear, but, historically speaking when the NFC team wins, the stock market does a lot better the whole year, and when an AFC team wins, the stock market does a little bit worse.”
This year, the National Football Conference team is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by quarterback Tom Brady; the American Football Conference team is represented by Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback.
Since 1967, the S&P 500 has risen an average 10.2% for the full year when the NFC wins and 7.1% when the AFC wins.
But, while Tom Brady has switched to an NFC team this year from AFC team New England Patriots, past performance suggests he’s not a winner for the market.
“When Tom Brady’s been in the game, 9 times —this is his record 10th Super Bowl — the S&P’s actually flat for the year,” said Detrick. “He might be the GOAT [greatest of all time], but he’s not the GOAT for the stock market.”
The S&P 500 is up 3% for the year so far and hit record highs on Friday.